\u3000\u3000 Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) (603236)
[matters]
The company released the performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be about 350 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 85.17%, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company will be about 328 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 92.86%, which is in line with the previous expectation.
[comment]
The company’s revenue side blossoms at many points, and its market share is leading in the world. In 2021, according to the market demand, the company continued to innovate products, enrich and optimize the product structure, and formed a one-stop solution including cellular communication module, WiFi / BT module, GNSS module, antenna, cloud platform, etc. the diversified products and rich functions can meet the growing demand for intelligent terminals of the Internet of things, in vehicle, intelligent security, gateway, wireless payment The sales revenue of notebook computers and other fields has increased significantly. According to the performance forecast data, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of about 11 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 80.16%. According to the statistical data of counterpoint, the shares of 2021q1-q3 in the global Internet of things cellular module market are 21.6%, 21.2% and 31.6% respectively, far ahead of other manufacturers at home and abroad, and the leading position is stable.
The net interest rate rose against the trend and is expected to continue to improve in the future. From the performance of Listed Companies in the industry in the third quarter of 2021, affected by the continuous rise in the price and shortage of upstream raw materials, the gross profit margin and net profit margin generally declined. The gross profit margin of the company in the first three quarters of 2021 was 18.48%, down 1.86pct year-on-year. However, from the profit performance of the company’s performance forecast, the net interest rate in 2021 is about 3.18%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.08pct, realizing the contrarian improvement. We expect that the company’s R & D expense rate will have an inflection point, the scale effect will begin to reflect, and the net interest rate is expected to further increase after the improvement of upstream supply in the future.
Taking into account the company’s performance forecast, the prosperity of the industry and the improvement of the company’s operating efficiency, we lowered the company’s period expense rate, thus raising the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 11 billion, 15.4 billion and 20.79 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 350 million, 629 million and 930 million yuan, corresponding to 77, 43 and 29 times of PE, maintaining the rating of “overweight”.
[risk tips]
The growth of Internet of things connections is less than expected;
The upstream supply continues to be tight and the price of raw materials is high;
The penetration rate of the Internet of vehicles is lower than expected;
Market competition intensifies.
