\u3000\u3000 Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) (000012)
Core view
The company released the performance forecast for 21 years. The net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.29-1.63 billion yuan, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company is 1.24-1.54 billion yuan. If estimated according to the median value, it is 1.46/1.37 billion yuan, yoy + 87% / 154% respectively. The performance growth was mainly due to the sharp rise in the average price of glass products and the rapid year-on-year improvement of the overall performance of electronic glass and display business.
The annual provision for asset impairment was RMB 1.07-1.18 billion, which was the biggest factor affecting the performance. According to the median value of performance forecast, 21q4 lost 50 million yuan. The company made provision for impairment of assets under construction, goodwill and some litigation related receivables of Qingyuan CSG phase I production line technological transformation, with 21q4 reaching 370-480 million yuan. We expect that Qingyuan CSG will produce kk8 top two glass in the future, and some old assets cannot be used. It is assumed that the impairment of the net profit of q21.5 billion yuan will be reversed to the net profit of q21.5 billion yuan. If the impairment of assets is reversed in 21q3, the net profit of 21q3 will be 730 million yuan. We believe that the decline of Q4 chain performance is mainly related to the decline in the prosperity of float glass industry. According to Zhuo Chuang consulting, the average price of 21q4 / Q3 float glass (including tax) is 119 / 152 yuan / heavy box respectively, with a large decline month on month. Meanwhile, the price of soda ash, an important raw material, has been rising from 2435 yuan / ton in 21q3 to 3362 yuan / ton in 21q4. According to the consumption of 0.2 tons of soda ash per ton of glass, the cost of this part has increased to 185 yuan / ton.
The production of electronic / photovoltaic glass is expected to expand in 22 years, and the quantity and price of engineering glass will rise at the same time. Qingyuan front line 22h1 is expected to complete the technical transformation and mass produce kk8, and continue to realize the domestic alternative logic. The mass production of kk8 is expected to drive the company's electronic glass profit to increase significantly in 2022. At present, the photovoltaic glass production lines of Fengyang phase I and Xianning are under construction, and the daily melting capacity is expected to reach 7300t / D by the end of 2022. The new installed capacity of PV in 21 years is 54.88gw, and China Power union expects that the new installed capacity of PV in 22 years is about 90gw, yoy + 64%. Although the top players of photovoltaic glass are expanding their production capacity, they have strong growth as a guarantee, and the downward space of photovoltaic glass price is small. Thanks to the large daily melting capacity of kilns and the existing experience in photovoltaic glass production, we believe that the company's photovoltaic glass business has strong competitiveness. For the engineering glass business, on the one hand, the rapid price rise of the original 21h1 film has damaged the profitability of the engineering glass business, which has been improved in 21q4. On the other hand, the company's engineering glass production capacity is expected to be greatly improved in 22 years compared with 21 years, and the profitability of this business is worth looking forward to.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Adjust the EPS of 21-23 years to 0.47/0.93/1.33 yuan (original EPS 0.62/1.02/1.46 yuan). The profit forecast of 21 years is reduced mainly because the asset impairment Q4 is higher than expected. In addition, the overall gross profit margin is also reduced. Using the segment valuation method and referring to the 22-year valuation of comparable companies, the flat sector and engineering glass / photovoltaic glass / electronic glass / Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) business is valued at 7 / 23 / 17 / 13X respectively, corresponding to the target price of 12.91 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: real estate investment has fallen sharply, the mass production of electronic glass is less than expected, the asset impairment is more than expected, and the price fluctuation of products / raw materials is more than expected
