\u3000\u3000 Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) (603501)
The company released the performance forecast: the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company from 4.468 billion yuan to 4.868 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 65.13% to 79.91%. It is expected to realize a net profit of RMB 3.918 billion to RMB 4.268 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 74.51% to 90.10%.
On board CIS opens the growth channel: according to IHS prediction, the demand for on-board cameras will increase from 400 million in 2020 to 1.1 billion in 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 22.4%. According to yole's calculation, the market scale of on-board cis2020 was US $1.44 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.4%. We estimate that the on-board CIS market may reach 12.420/15.525 billion yuan in 2022 / 2023. The global car CIS market is an oligopoly, with ansenmey accounting for about 60% and the company accounting for about 29%. As Sony and Samsung have entered the car CIS for a short time, they are not expected to pose a major threat to the company in the short term. Through scheme cooperation with international leading automotive vision technology companies (NVIDIA, Renesas, etc.), the company provides high-quality image solutions with higher cost performance for rear-view cameras, landscape display systems and electronic rear-view mirrors. The company will fully benefit from the high growth of vehicle CIS industry and its own industry position.
Tddi is in short supply, and both volume and price have become a new driving force for growth: according to trendforce, since 2020, due to the unexpected recovery of the mobile phone market and the rapid decline of Huawei's mobile phone market share, other mobile phone manufacturers are actively hoarding goods, resulting in the shortage of mobile phone tddi and the rise of both volume and price. According to omdia, the company's tddi business accounted for 8% of the global market in 2020, and there is still room for improvement. In 2020, the company's tddi business realized a revenue of 744 million yuan. With the help of the company's channel advantages, it reached 613 million yuan in the first half of 2021. We expect the company's tddi revenue to double in 2021 and the gross profit margin to increase significantly. With the launch of tddi's new products and solutions, the company's profit has also been further expanded during the reporting period.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 28.707/35.669/44.462 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 44.81% / 24.25% / 24.65%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 47.49/60.69/77.48 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 75.51% / 27.78% / 27.67%. At present (February 7, 2022), the corresponding PE is 45.07x/35.27x/27.63x, First coverage gives a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the penetration rate of on-board camera is lower than expected, the production capacity is lower than expected, the risk of intensified industry competition and the risk of goodwill impairment.
