\u3000\u3000 Kingclean Electric Co.Ltd(603355) (603355)
Event: the company issued a performance forecast. 2021a: the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 500 ~ 600 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 52.45% ~ 82.94%; Deduct the non net profit of 436 ~ 536 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of -8.68% ~ + 12.26%. 21q4: the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 22 ~ 122 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 125.2% ~ 238.6%; Deduct non net profit of -02 ~ 98 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 101.7% ~ 15.6%.
Comments:
The cost of raw materials affects the gross profit, and the growth of private brand marketing expenses affects the profitability
The company's performance is basically in line with expectations. We believe that the performance growth is mainly affected by the following aspects:
1) the gross profit margin of ODM export Q4, one of the company's main businesses, may decline due to the impact of raw material costs. Due to the lag in the transmission of raw material costs in the company's production and sales process, the price of raw materials has fallen from a high level at present, and it is expected that the company's gross profit margin level will be improved in the future.
2) the company's own brand launched a variety of new floor washing machines in 21q4. At the same time, we expect the corresponding sales expenses to increase by strengthening the marketing and promotion of online channels, such as opening screen advertising, cooperation with head anchors and signing brand spokesmen.
Revenue is in line with expectations, independent brands maintain growth, and parts and components increase the construction of new production capacity
In terms of revenue, the company expects the annual revenue to increase by 25-30% year-on-year, in line with expectations. In terms of private brands, "Lake" brand grew steadily and "Jimmy" brand grew rapidly. According to the business consultant data, the transaction amount of Lake brand household appliances Q4 was + 11% year-on-year, and the transaction amount of Jimmy brand household appliances Q4 was + 102% year-on-year, including mite removal instrument and other categories. In terms of parts and components, Q4 company has completed the acquisition of Shanghai Pajie and plans to publicly issue 1.2 billion yuan of convertible bonds for key parts and components of new energy vehicles. It is expected that after the corresponding production capacity is put into operation in 22 years, it will contribute revenue and performance to the company.
Investment suggestion: on the revenue side, private brands, core parts and ODM OEM of the three businesses are expected to grow together. For the private brand part, the company launched a new floor washing machine in 21 years to enrich its product line; In terms of core parts, the company acquired Pajie auto parts factory, which is expected to be incorporated into the body in 22 years. In terms of aluminum alloy die casting, the company mainly produces inverter and electronic controller protective shell, and its revenue is expected to grow rapidly. On the performance side, the subsequent decline in the price of raw materials is expected to repair the profitability of the company. We expect the net profit of the company to be RMB 580 million, RMB 950 million and RMB 1.15 billion in 21-23 years (the previous value is RMB 680 million, RMB 1.02 billion and RMB 1.21 billion), and the corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price is 25X, 15x and 13X respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: exchange rate fluctuations affect the risk of export business; The risk that domestic sales do not meet expectations; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The penetration of new energy vehicles is less than the expected risk; The performance forecast is the preliminary calculation of the company, and the actual situation is subject to the annual report.
