\u3000\u3000 Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) (002707)
On January 28, the company released the performance forecast for 2021, and the annual net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be a loss of 410 ~ 520 million yuan; The operating income was 650-750 million yuan, yoy-58% – 52%. The loss range in 2021 is narrower than that in 2020, and the recovery of the company and related industrial chains still coexists with the uncertainty of the epidemic.
Key points supporting rating
The annual loss narrowed, the impact of the epidemic has not dissipated, and the recovery of confidence remains unchanged. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 decreased by 960 ~ 1.07 billion yuan year-on-year. Although the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 increased by 123 ~ 233 million yuan month on month, it still decreased by 853 ~ 963 million yuan year-on-year compared with that in 2020, mainly due to the previously recognized goodwill impairment loss of 768 million yuan, which also provided a certain space for the company to go light this year. The year-on-year and month on month median values of Q4 revenue are + 4% and + 23% respectively. Therefore, the increase and loss of Q4 net profit may be caused by the increase and superposition of various expenses, which does not rule out the possibility of impairment of goodwill in this quarter of the year. The two reasons are common. At present, the company’s outbound team tourism business has not been restored, and China’s inter provincial tourism strictly implements the “circuit breaker” mechanism. However, with the normalization of prevention and control and the company’s active adjustment of direction, the confidence of gradual recovery of future performance will not change.
Deepen strategic cooperation with Alibaba network and raise funds through multiple channels to help follow-up development. Faced with the continuous impact of the epidemic, the merger of Zhongxin Caesar was terminated and returned to the path of independent and differentiated development. On December 8, Alibaba network transferred 6% of its shares through agreement transfer, which intends to deepen the strategic cooperation between the company and Alibaba network. In addition, the company applied to shareholders for the extension of the loan of 317 million yuan. The company actively uses multi-channel financing to raise funds, which may be conducive to promoting business upgrading based on the established development strategy.
The transformation of domestic tourism has achieved results, and overseas tourism has regained confidence. Under the development pattern of “China’s great cycle”, the company has created high-end Chinese tourism products, launched inland river cruise projects, gave full play to the advantages of European resources, continued to tap the dividends of Hainan’s tourism policies, and strategically cooperated with duty-free merchants to promote the layout of duty-free business. In addition, the 14th five year plan for tourism development issued by the State Council on January 20 proposed to steadily develop outbound tourism on the premise of effective control of the epidemic situation, so as to inject a booster into the stagnant overseas tourism.
Valuation
The company’s performance in the past 21 years has been greatly affected by the failure to open outbound tourism, but the main business hopes to start recovery on the basis of the slowing impact of the epidemic, and the demand for outbound tourism is expected to be gradually released. Therefore, the company’s EPS in the past 21-23 years is adjusted to -0.48/0.04/0.19 yuan, and the corresponding P / E ratio is -14.3/196.7/37.0 times, maintaining the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
The development of outbound tourism is less than expected, the landing of cooperation projects is less than expected, and there is a risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic.
