\u3000\u3000 Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) (600110)
Key investment points
The company expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be 68-98 million yuan, down 43% ~ 18% month on month, and the provision for asset impairment will affect the profit. The company expects the annual net profit attributable to the parent company to be 390-420 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 7142% ~ 7699%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is 68-98 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 215% ~ 353% and a month-on-month decrease of 43% ~ 18%, which is basically in line with market expectations. In 2021, the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by 370-400 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 832% ~ 892%, of which the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by 74-104 million yuan in 2021q4, with a month-on-month decrease of 30% ~ 2%. Due to the one-time asset impairment of about 30-50 million yuan, if added back, the corresponding net profit deducted increased by 15% month-on-month, which is in line with market expectations.
The impact of power rationing has been basically eliminated, and Q4 volume will rise in 2021. We expect that the company’s Q4 shipment in 2021 will be about 9600 tons, with a month on month increase of about 4%. In 2021, the company will ship about 36000-37000 tons, with full production and sales, with a year-on-year increase of 80%. In terms of profitability, if the impact of asset impairment loss is added back, we expect the net profit of Q4 single ton of copper foil business to reach about 12000-13000 yuan / ton in 2021, with a slight increase month on month. In the case of rising electricity charges, with the gradual increase of processing charges and further dilution of financial expenses, we expect the increase of processing charges to be further reflected in 2022, With the optimization of product structure and scale effect, the profit per ton is expected to continue to increase in the future. With the release of new capacity, we expect the company to ship 60000 tons in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 60% +, of which Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and LG contribute the main increment.
The company’s capacity expansion accelerated, with a superposition of 4.5 μ The proportion of M products has increased and the leading position has emerged. The company has an existing capacity of 43000 tons / year. The company expects to achieve a copper foil capacity of about 70000 tons in Q2 in 2022. In addition, Qinghai plans to build a production capacity of 15000 tons / year and 50000 tons in Huangshi phase I. The company is expected to be put into operation in mid-2023. After completion, the company’s production capacity will reach 135000 tons. From the perspective of product structure, the company will pay 4.5% in 2021 μ M and 4 μ The proportion of M copper foil shipments will increase to 15% ~ 20%, mainly supplying Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . Later, China’s second tier manufacturers will gradually switch. We expect that the proportion will further increase to 20% + in 2022. In addition, overseas customers will have a large volume in 2022 and switch 6 successively μ M products, customer structure, product structure is further optimized, and the leading position of the company is stable.
The tight supply of lithium copper foil leads to the rise of processing fees. We expect the supply to continue to be tight in 2022. According to our calculation, the global industrial demand will increase to 650000 tons in 2022, and the supply will continue to be in short supply. On the supply side, the new capacity of the whole industry is limited. We expect that the capacity utilization rate will remain high in 2022, with a growth rate of 4.5% μ And 6 m μ M link capacity continues to be in short supply. First half of 2021 6 μ M copper foil processing fee 50000 yuan / ton, 4.5 yuan μ M processing fee is 70000 yuan / ton +, and the production capacity is in short supply. The price of Q3 has increased by 5000-10000 yuan / ton in 2021. The subsequent processing fee may be further increased, and the leading profit elasticity begins to reflect.
Investment suggestion: the prosperity of the industry is high. Considering the impact of the company’s provision, we expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 470 / 827 / 1159 million, adjusted to RMB 407 / 846 / 1181 million, with a year-on-year increase of 7463% / 108% / 40%. Corresponding to 47 / 23 / 16xpe, 35 times PE in 2022 and the target price of 21.2 yuan will be given to maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the decline of copper price exceeded expectations, and the industry competition exceeded expectations.
