\u3000\u3000 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (600258)
On January 28, the company issued the announcement of performance pre profit in 2021. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 45 ~ 65 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 541 ~ 561 million yuan compared with 2020; The net profit after deducting non-profit is 08 ~ 12 million yuan, an increase of 536 ~ 540 million yuan compared with 2020; The annual performance turned losses into profits.
Key points supporting rating
Q4 performance is under pressure due to the impact of the epidemic, and the resilience can be restored in the future. The company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 45 ~ 65 million yuan, with a year-on-year loss of 541 ~ 561 million yuan. In Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 80 ~ – 60 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 236% ~ – 202% and a month-on-month increase of q3-233% ~ – 200%. Throughout the year, with the recovery of Q2 tourism market, the company’s performance at this stage showed a good recovery trend. Over the years, the company’s Q2 / Q3 operation has been relatively pulled out. Therefore, under the coexistence of epidemic recovery (Q2) and fluctuation (Q3 / Q4), the company’s short-term performance is under pressure this year, and the overall resilience is better than that in 20 years. It is expected that the company’s performance is expected to improve rapidly when the epidemic situation is controlled in the future.
The implementation of fixed growth will help the process of expanding stores and grasp the opportunity of counter trend expansion under the epidemic. The company opened more than 1400 stores in 2021, more than 1600 reserve stores by the end of the year, 833 stores in q1-q3 and 567 stores in Q4. The number of stores opened in a single quarter exceeded that in H1, and the number of stores opened in a single quarter and throughout the year reached a new high. As of November 24, the company has raised a total of 2.99 billion yuan of actual funds, of which 70% is intended to be used for hotel expansion and upgrading. The company is seizing the expansion opportunity in a special period to accelerate the market. The implementation of fixed growth is expected to enhance the capacity range of future expansion and improve the anti risk ability under the disturbance of the epidemic.
We will continue to accelerate digital construction, provide diversified services and tap new values outside accommodation. The company applies 5g, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and other digital technologies to improve guest service and operation efficiency. The newly established life club, for example, increased a number of rights and interests, cultivated member stickiness, and launched the “first free global purchase” platform in September. In December, duty-free products were launched on app and wechat applet and included in the “first free global purchase” section. In the future, it is expected to further enrich categories, attract consumers and improve the number of new members and repurchase rate.
Valuation
With the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation throughout the year, the company has quickly turned losses into profits, continuously promoted the core strategy, accelerated the expansion of stores and improved the industry status. The business products have been actively adjusted with the market demand, but the epidemic has had a significant impact on the company’s performance in 21 years. We adjusted the company’s EPS in 21-23 years to 0.05/0.82/1.01, and the corresponding P / E ratios were 475.63/31.4/25.3 times respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
Structural differences in regional economic recovery, over reliance on franchise store expansion, and repeated covid-19 epidemic risk.
