\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812)
What kind of industry is the diaphragm industry? From the perspective of industry demand, benefiting from the large amount of downstream electric vehicles and energy storage, we calculate that the diaphragm demand CAGR will reach 44.4% in 2020-25. The industry has a long slope, thick snow and broad space. From the perspective of industry barriers, the diaphragm production process is complex, the production yield is low, the capital investment is large, and the industry threshold is high. From the perspective of industry structure, after the fierce price war in 2017-2019, the industry reshuffle has been completed, and the wet diaphragm has stepped out of the competition pattern of “one super and many strong”, highlighting the advantageous position of a single leader.
What are the advantages of Enjie compared with other diaphragm enterprises? 1. Equipment advantages: the company is deeply bound with the leading steel making Institute of diaphragm equipment, jointly develops equipment with the steel making Institute, and has strong production line integration and commissioning ability, and then arranges the equipment by itself. 2. Capacity advantage: at the end of 2021, the company has 60 production lines with a capacity of 5 billion square meters. It is planned to expand production to 10 billion square meters in 2023. Sufficient capacity will ensure the ability of subsequent order undertaking and delivery. It will jointly build new capacity with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and continue to expand the moat. 3. Cost advantage: continuous process improvement, multi-dimensional excellence in yield, depreciation, raw materials and start-up time, and the cost remains absolutely leading in the industry. 4. Customer advantages: China includes Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , China Innovation airlines, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) ; Overseas include LG, Panasonic, Samsung SDI, Tesla, northvolt, etc. The company strives for excellence and continues to consolidate its own advantages.
Why pay attention to Enjie at the current time? 1. In the short term, since 2021, the supply of diaphragm equipment has limited the expansion of the industry, and the supply-demand relationship of diaphragm link is relatively tight. However, the company’s equipment support + tapping its own capacity potential, contributing to the main supply increment of the industry, and improving the deterministic share + profitability. At the same time, it is expected to improve the single line output capacity of overseas production lines, reduce costs and increase efficiency. 2. In the long run, the rapid increase of the company’s online coating capacity will promote the industry to enter a higher dimension of competition. The company significantly reduces costs through online coating, which makes customers feel the price reduction on the one hand, improves the proportion of the company’s coating products on the other hand, and improves profits through the upgrading of product structure. Further optimize the pattern of the company in the diaphragm industry.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 81.38/147.70/21.458 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 27.04/55.01/8.047 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 80 / 39 / 27 times of the current valuation. In view of the high barriers in the diaphragm field and the tight short-term supply and demand, the company’s performance is expected to rise in both volume and profit. It is rated as “Buy-A”, with a target price of 300 yuan, corresponding to 49 times the valuation in 2022.
Risk tips: the installed capacity of downstream new energy vehicles / photovoltaic energy storage is lower than expected, the mass production time of solid-state batteries is significantly ahead of schedule, the speed of capacity construction is lower than expected, the market competition is intensified, and the model assumptions are lower than expected.
