Before the festival, the coal price broke through 1000 yuan, and the valuation of high-performance or catalytic coal stocks returned
In the week before the Spring Festival, the price of thermal coal continued to rise, but the increase was relatively narrow, and there was a rise and fall within the week. The price of port coal stabilized at 1010 yuan before the festival. On the one hand, the price surge before the festival is still a better than expected performance under the centralized release of replenishment demand. On the other hand, the national development and Reform Commission released the price stabilization signal again before the festival to restrain the rise of coal prices. During the Spring Festival, the inventory of the power plant has been replenished to a high level and higher than that in the same period of previous years. The phased replenishment of the inventory has come to an end. The start-up of downstream industrial enterprises has declined, reducing the industrial power load, and the daily consumption demand of the power plant has weakened. Considering the continuous low temperature, the civil power load still provides a certain demand toughness; Large and medium-sized coal mines responded to the policy initiative to maintain production during the Spring Festival, and the supply will not fall sharply. Overall, the weak demand in the section may put pressure on the coal price. In the later stage, the demand side will gradually fade with the recovery of temperature after the festival. The power plant may focus on long-term cooperation and consumption inventory, and pay attention to the progress of downstream production resumption; After the supply end Festival, it may be gradually tightened, and the safety production will return to the focus of the policy. From February to March, the security inspection of the place of origin in the special period of the Winter Olympic Games and the two sessions may be strengthened, and the high load production intensity may be unsustainable, and the production intensity may match the demand. Under the expectation of weak supply and demand, the decline of coal price may be limited, which is expected to operate stably at a high level. Before the festival, listed coal enterprises intensively disclosed the pre increase announcement of performance, the high increase trend of annual performance appeared, and the high profit of coal enterprises may gradually get the consensus of the market. In the current critical period of energy reform, we continue to be optimistic about the coal sector: in the medium and long term, the space for new capacity is limited, the nuclear growth potential of stock capacity has been fully tapped, the coal supply is expected to peak ahead of demand, supporting the operation of coal prices at a high level, and the coal enterprises may usher in an era of sustained high profitability. We expect the performance of coal enterprises to return to a benign and stable release, which is expected to catalyze the valuation repair. Targets with stable performance and high dividends: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Targets with expected growth benefits: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) ; Target beneficiaries of Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) Transformation: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Coal power industry chain: before the festival, the increase of power coal price narrowed, and the national development and Reform Commission released the signal of price stabilization
The week before the festival (from January 24 to January 28, 2022), the price of thermal coal continued to rise, but the increase was relatively narrow, and there was a rise and fall within the week. The port coal price stabilized at 1010 yuan before the festival. On the one hand, the price surge before the festival is still a better than expected performance under the centralized release of replenishment demand. On the other hand, the national development and Reform Commission released the price stabilization signal again before the festival to restrain the rise of coal prices. In terms of demand, the low temperature before the festival continued to support the operation of the power plant with strong daily consumption. At the same time, the downstream carried out centralized replenishment to deal with the holidays before the festival, and the demand was released in stages; In terms of supply, some coal mines have holidays before the festival, and the supply of producing areas has been tightened slightly. During the Spring Festival, the inventory of the power plant has been replenished to a high level, which is higher than that in the same period of previous years. The phased replenishment has come to an end. The commencement of downstream industrial enterprises has declined, which has reduced the industrial power load, and the daily consumption demand of the power plant has weakened. Considering the continuous low temperature, the civil power load still provides a certain demand toughness; Large and medium-sized coal mines responded to the policy initiative to maintain production during the Spring Festival, and the supply will not fall sharply. Overall, the demand in the section is weak, and the coal price may be under pressure.
Coal coke steel industry chain: Double coke is stable before the festival, and the inventory of coke coal downstream is high
Coke: the coke price remained stable before the festival. In terms of demand, the operating rate of steel mills fell before the festival, and the rise of iron ore prices compressed the profits of steel mills. At the same time, under the influence of the production restriction of the Spring Festival holiday and the Winter Olympic Games, the demand of steel mills fell periodically. In addition, in the early stage, the centralized high-intensity replenishment of inventory hit a record high, putting pressure on the price of double coke; In terms of supply, the operating rate of coke oven before the festival has recovered to the high point in recent years and dropped slightly before the festival. Coking coal: the price of coking coal runs smoothly before the festival. Considering that the coal storage level of coke steel enterprises has been at a historical high, the demand for coke coal replenishment slowed down in the later stage. On the supply side, it is expected that after the festival, the production area security inspection will continue to work, or the release of output will be limited, the supply margin will be tightened, and the supply side of coking coal price is still supported, which is expected to run stronger. At the same time, attention should be paid to the progress of resumption of production and destocking of steel mills after the festival.
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, accelerated substitution risk of renewable energy
