Festival Baijiu is mainly stable, and some companies predict their performance ahead of schedule.
From January 24 to January 28, the food and beverage index fell by 6.4%, ranking 25th in the primary sub industry, about 1.9pct lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. The overall fluctuation of the market before the festival should be related to geopolitics and the rise of capital risk aversion before the festival. The performance of food and beverage is weaker than the market, which also reflects the market’s concern about mobile sales before the festival. At present, the Baijiu sales of Spring Festival basically meet previous expectations, and overall maintain a steady momentum. High-end Baijiu keeps healthy growth during the festival, and prices are matched with sales growth. Sub Baijiu liquor differentiation, some brands slightly fluctuate, but sales remained stable. Areas with better epidemic control and control, such as Anhui, also have achieved a good momentum of growth and obvious upgrading of Baijiu consumption. We are still optimistic about the opportunities of high-end Baijiu and sub high end Baijiu, and the current valuation is in a reasonable range.
Before the festival, some companies issued performance forecasts, and on the whole, they still maintained a good trend. (1) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) it is expected to realize a profit of 5.23-5.54 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 70% – 80%. In the fourth quarter, the company strictly controlled goods and accelerated the delivery of superimposed expenses, resulting in a slowdown in revenue and a decline in net interest rate. In 2022, the company firmly pursues higher quality development. It is expected that the product structure will be significantly improved and the annual performance will maintain rapid growth. (2) Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) the annual revenue increased significantly. It is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.632 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 54%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.199 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 64%. Controlling goods and raising prices in the fourth quarter laid a good foundation for the peak season of the Spring Festival. Even under the disturbance of the epidemic, the collection target of the current peak season in the main regions has been basically completed, and the revenue end is expected to achieve steady growth in 2022q1. In 2022, the company will continue to focus on resources, achieve a breakthrough in the scale of high-end collections, orderly promote the steady growth of sub high-end well platforms and No. 8, and there is still enough high-end and national potential in the future. (3) Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) it is estimated that the revenue in 2021 will be 5.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 753 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.39%. Meiweixian subsidiary is expected to achieve an accelerated growth of 6.7% in 2021q4, mainly due to price increases, the slowdown of the negative impact of community group buying, the recovery of the condiment industry and other reasons. In 2022, the trend of condiment industry is stable and upward, but it is still facing demand and cost pressure. The company lays a solid foundation, strives for progress while maintaining stability, and can improve in the future.
Recommended combination: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089)
(1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) cancel the unpacking policy of Feitian Maotai liquor, and the price difference between the original box and bulk bottle is expected to narrow, which is conducive to the development of marketization. The price increase of Maotai liquor is expected to rise. Considering the supply of base liquor, the planned revenue target is expected to accelerate in 2022. The company has room to move calmly in terms of volume and price, and the logic of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future is smooth. (2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) recently, the wholesale price has rebounded, the channel inventory is low, and the shipment is more stable than that in the early stage. Considering the changes of quotas inside and outside the plan, it is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2022. (3) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) in the fourth quarter, the goods were strictly controlled and the superimposed expenses were accelerated, resulting in a slowdown in revenue and a decline in net interest rate. In 2022, the company firmly pursues higher quality development. It is expected that the product structure will be significantly improved and the annual performance will maintain rapid growth. (4) Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) the price increase has a positive impact on costs and channel profits. The condiment industry is slowly repaired, and the company also shows a recovery trend. Considering the price increase, it is expected to return to the normal growth level in 2022. Proposed layout and long-term holding. (5) Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) : the draft equity incentive was issued. After the implementation of the new national standard, the milk powder industry started a new round of formula upgrading, accelerating the medium and high-end of the milk powder industry. The company is expected to fully benefit from the dividend of the new round of formula upgrading. At the same time, the second growth curve of SA is opened, and the cosmetics market is expected to relay.
Risk tips: economic downturn, food safety, fluctuations in raw material prices, lower than expected recovery in consumer demand, etc.
