Weekly observation: listed pig breeding enterprises enter the “deep water area” of pig cycle
As of January 28, 2022, 18 major listed pig breeding enterprises have announced the performance forecast of 2021, and the listed pig breeding enterprises have accumulated a loss of 41.758 billion yuan in 2021 (according to the performance forecast center). In the whole year of 2021, only 5 enterprises achieved profits and 13 enterprises recorded losses. In the single quarter of 2021q4, although the pig price rebounded in the quarter, only four enterprises made profits in Q4. From the perspective of the four-year dimension from 2018 to 2021, five enterprises have suffered losses in this cycle.
Pig slaughtering enterprises resume work sporadically, and the “weak period” of pig price is coming. At the end of the Spring Festival holiday, pig slaughtering enterprises began to quote sporadically on February 3, but it is expected to maintain a low operating rate before the 15th of the first month. The off-season of pig consumption has come. In the first half of 2022, we need to continue to pay attention to three aspects to verify the rhythm of pig cycle reversal: (1) changes in feed prices; (2) Changes of slaughter average weight of pigs; (3) Price changes of piglets and breeding pigs.
Zhou’s view: the pig cycle reversal is imminent, and the transgenic breeding policy is implemented
In 2022, the pig cycle is about to reverse, and the layout of production capacity is in the period of de industrialization. Focus on Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) with leading breeding cost; The recovery of production indicators is accelerated, and the cost is reduced by Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) ; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) with excellent performance elasticity; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) with both breeding cost and capital advantages; Relevant beneficiary object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) .
The safety margin of the dynamic insurance sector appears, and the industry space may usher in accelerated capacity expansion. It is recommended to focus on China’s leading animal subunit vaccine enterprise Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
Feed sales benefit from the high scale of pig stock, and the increase of column pressure in winter remains unabated. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprise Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) with outstanding advantages in product power and service power.
The price rise conduction superimposed weather disturbance, and the planting chain landscape continued. It is suggested to pay attention to the Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) target of grain price increase. Highlight the recommendation of transgenic technology with outstanding advantages Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) where the fundamentals will improve; Related beneficiary objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
Market performance this week (1.24-1.28): Agriculture outperformed the market by 2.92 percentage points
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.62% and the agricultural index fell 1.70%, outperforming the market by 2.92 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, the poultry breeding sector led the decline, with a decrease of 14.14%. In terms of individual stocks, Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) (+ 5.09%), Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) (+ 4.51%) and Hefei Fengle Seed Co.Ltd(000713) (+ 2.76%) led the gains.
Price tracking this week (1.24-1.28): the prices of white feather chicken seedlings, medium speed chicken, grass carp, corn and soybean meal rose this week
Pig breeding: according to the monitoring of Boya Hexun, on January 28, 2022, the average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 13.62 yuan / kg, compared with -0.66 yuan / kg last Friday; The average price of piglets was 24.06 yuan / kg, up from -0.15 yuan / kg last Friday; The average price of white striped meat was 19.20 yuan / kg, down from -0.28 yuan / kg last Friday. Today, the price ratio of pig feed is 3.75:1. According to wind data, on January 28, the average profit of self breeding head was -311.55 yuan / head, compared with -11.19 yuan / head; The average profit of purchased piglets is 7.77 yuan / head, with a month on month increase of + 40.92 yuan / head.
White feather broiler: according to wind data, the average price of chicken seedlings this week was 1.43 yuan / feather, a month on month increase of + 27.68%; The average price of wool chicken was 7.93 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of -0.63%; The breeding profit of hairy chicken was 0.45 yuan / feather, with a month on month increase of + 0.25 yuan / feather.
Risk tip: the macro economy is down and the consumption remains depressed; Uncertainty of animal diseases in winter, etc.
