Industry policy: the Ministry of housing and urban rural development proposes to fully release housing demand and prevent risks is still the focus
In January, industrial policies focused on stabilizing demand and preventing risks. In terms of stabilizing demand, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development rarely mentioned "fully releasing residents' housing demand", the national development and Reform Commission proposed to promote healthy housing consumption, and the ministries and commissions were more active in the demand side regulation and control policies; On the basis of granting subsidies, third and fourth tier cities began to make efforts in terms of loan and sales restrictions, and continued to release favorable policies. In terms of risk prevention, it mainly includes preventing delivery risk and financial risk. Among them, local governments began to carry out differentiated pre-sale fund supervision, but the attitude of preventing delivery risk has not changed; At the same time, in order to prevent the transmission of real estate risks to finance and other fields, local governments will always pay high attention to the investigation and resolution of real estate risks during the year.
Housing market: the demand is sluggish, and the turnover has decreased by nearly 40% year-on-year
In January 2022, the sales area of commercial housing in 40 cities monitored by Yihan think tank was 17.723 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 38.6% and a month on month decrease of 27.7%. Although the transactions in various cities were different, the transactions in most cities were dismal, with a month on month decrease.
We believe that there are four main reasons why the housing market is still cold. First, the housing market was hot in the same period of 2021, with a high base, so the year-on-year decline was large; Second, demand has experienced a release period and is now in the accumulation stage; Third, it is common to celebrate the new year on the spot. There is only one day in January (New Year's Eve). During the Spring Festival holiday, the release of home ownership is limited; Fourth, strict policy regulation and market wait-and-see sentiment are still strong. Among them, the expectation has not been adjusted and the strict regulation and control policy is the core factor affecting the housing transaction. Under the supply side reform, the reduction of leverage continues to be promoted, and the capital inflow of the industry depends more on its own sales activities. Only the appropriate residential trading volume can promote the virtuous circle of the industry. However, continued low turnover may not be conducive to a virtuous circle. In order to achieve a "virtuous circle", it may be necessary to promote the full release of reasonable housing demand.
Land market: the heat of the land market is down, and both supply and demand are weak
In January 2022, Yihan think tank monitored the supply of urban residential land, with a construction area of 40.021 million square meters, down 49% and 82% respectively on a month on month basis. The total construction area of transactions was 23.276 million square meters, down 60% and 86% respectively on a month on month basis.
In the long run, the market demand of first tier and core second tier cities continues to improve. Land transactions are mainly driven by supply, and the transaction scale changes with the rhythm of centralized land supply. In January, the supply scale decreased significantly by 70% and 90% respectively, and the auction of 18 plots listed in Beijing has not been opened, resulting in the decline of the overall transaction scale; Ordinary second tier and third and fourth tier cities have great inventory pressure, and the transaction scale is difficult to turn back under the background of poor market conditions. Looking forward to February, among the core cities, only Beijing announced that the first round of centralized land supply in 2022 will be auctioned in February, and the transaction scale of the land market is expected to remain depressed.
Enterprise performance: investment and sales are sluggish and vigilant against short-term debt repayment risks
In terms of investment, affected by the centralized land supply, the land acquisition scale of real estate enterprises increased between months. In January 2022, the total amount of land acquisition of equity of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 73.6% year-on-year. Under the condition that the supply window of 22 cities and the land investment of large-scale private enterprises have not been restored, local state-owned enterprises became the main force of land acquisition in January. It is expected that local state-owned enterprises will still be the main participants in the depressed land market in the short term. In terms of sales, the top 200 real estate enterprises decreased by 42.9% year-on-year in January 2022, continuing the cooling trend since July 2021. In 2022, real estate enterprises are facing the pressure of sluggish house purchase demand and sluggish sales. On the other hand, under the adjustment of industry clearing, the industry shuffled, the differentiation of real estate enterprises intensified, the sales of insurance enterprises were poor, some stable enterprises came from behind, and the industry pattern was reshaped. In terms of financing, the issuance scale of credit bonds of real estate enterprises reached 32.21 billion yuan, a decrease compared with December. State-owned central enterprises are still the main force in issuing bonds, and the issuance of bonds encouraging M & A has increased significantly. Although the issuance scale of overseas bonds of real estate enterprises rebounded slightly, it is still low. In the face of the peak repayment of US dollar bonds in the first quarter, enterprises will face pressure. In the capital market, the slight decline of real estate stocks does not affect the continuous recovery of stock prices. The performance of leading enterprises is obvious. We can also pay attention to high-quality real estate enterprises driven by multiple wheels.
