Multiple resonance upward, optimistic about the demand side (China’s sales volume is expected to exceed 6 million in 2022) and pay attention to the supply side
In January, the sales volume of electric vehicles exceeded expectations, and we are firmly optimistic about the new energy vehicle market in 2022; It is estimated that in 2022, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger vehicles will be more than 5.5 million, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to reach more than 25%, and the overall Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million; The industry is increasingly driven by high-quality products, and the relevant supply chains will fully benefit. The main reasons for optimism are: (1) at the policy level: the subsidy scale is raised from 2 million vehicles in 2021 to the upper limit, which is not locked, and the subsidy will run through the whole year of 2022; (2) Demand level: Based on the improvement of mileage, the popularity of plug-in hybrid models and the improvement of charging convenience, Chinese consumers’ recognition of new energy vehicles has increased significantly; (3) Supply level: in terms of the supply of new models, high-quality electric vehicle models emerge one after another. In 2020 and 2021, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles (plug-in hybrid + pure electric) account for more than 50% of all new models. Looking forward to the future, the capacity expansion in the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain will be gradually implemented. We believe that the upward cycle investment of electric vehicles has entered the third stage, and we attach importance to investment opportunities in three directions: (a) core growth: high barriers, link leaders, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and other front-line leaders benefit; (b) Post cycle: energy storage, hydrogen energy, charging for electricity, etc., Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) and other companies benefit; (c) New technologies: flat wire, 4680 battery, etc., Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) and other companies benefit.
In the first half of 2022, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car sales have made a good start, and high-quality products continue to make breakthroughs
In January 2022, the sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) was 92926, with a year-on-year increase of + 367.65% and a month on month increase of + 0.11%; GAC sold 16031 new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 117.93% and a month on month increase of + 10.56%; Xiaopeng sold 12922 cars, up + 114.83% year on year and – 19.24% month on month; The ideal car sales volume was 12268, with a year-on-year increase of + 128.07% and a month on month increase of – 12.91%; Nezha sold 11009 cars, with a year-on-year increase of + 401.55% and a month on month increase of + 8.71%; The sales volume of Weilai automobile was 8652, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.75% and a month on month increase of – 17.51%; The sales volume of zero running cars was 8085, with a year-on-year increase of + 384.71% and a month on month increase of + 3.56%. The data is better than the previous market expectation (the previous market expectation has a relatively large decline month on month).
The annual Byd Company Limited(002594) sales volume in 2022 is expected to exceed 1.3 million
In 2021, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 3521000 and Byd Company Limited(002594) 595000, accounting for 16.90%. In 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles and passenger cars is expected to exceed 5.5 million. Based on 20% – 25%, the sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) new energy vehicles in 2022 is expected to be 1.01-1.375 million. Byd Company Limited(002594) in January 2022, 95180 passenger cars were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 126.1%; 92926 new energy vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 367.65%. Among them, there are 46540 DM models and 46386 EV Models. The sales volume of plug-in hybrid models is expected to gradually exceed that of pure electric vehicles in 2022.
“Wei Xiaoli” fell slightly in January, and Nezha’s Zero run continued to break through
The delivery volume of “Wei Xiaoli” in January 2022 decreased slightly, mainly because it is the off-season of the automobile market before and after the Spring Festival. From the situation of previous years, it is normal that the sales volume decreased slightly in the first quarter. According to the data of previous years, the sales volume in the first quarter usually accounts for about 15% of the annual sales volume, while the sales volume in the fourth quarter usually accounts for 35% – 40%.
Nezha / Zero run car sales increased month on month. Nezha and zero running cars were not affected by the off-season before the Spring Festival. The month on month sales of Nezha cars and zero running cars were + 8.71% and + 3.56%, respectively. Their monthly sales volume was close to that of weixiaoli, the first echelon. We analyze the reasons for its continuous hot sales: (1) the price of single products is lower, the audience is wider, and it has a certain cost performance; (2) There are various marketing methods; (3) Actively explore the online car Hailing market and launch relevant models. There is a strong demand for electric vehicles in the online car Hailing market.
Risk tip: the cost of upstream industrial chain is high, and the policy effect is less than expected
