Zhou’s view: the data in January exceeded expectations and is optimistic about the short-term bottom upward opportunity
(1) new energy vehicles: the sales volume of electric vehicles in January exceeded expectations, and the high-quality supply side is expected to be repaired. The main data exceeding expectations are: the sales volume of 92926 vehicles in January Byd Company Limited(002594) , with a year-on-year increase of + 367.65% and a month on month increase of + 0.11%; GAC sold 16031 new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 117.93% and a month on month increase of + 10.56%; Nezha sold 11009 cars, with a year-on-year increase of + 401.55% and a month on month increase of + 8.71%; The sales volume of zero running cars was 8085, with a year-on-year increase of + 384.71% and a month on month increase of + 3.56%. Pay attention to new supply: Nezha / Zero run continue to make breakthroughs, and new products, new marketing and new market (online appointment) are the focus. Focus on core growth: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and other high-quality supply side data are expected to continue to exceed expectations. We believe that the investment in the upward cycle of electric vehicles has entered the third stage, and we attach importance to investment opportunities in three directions: (a) core growth: high barriers, link leaders, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and other front-line leaders benefit; (b) Post cycle: energy storage, hydrogen energy, charging and changing electricity, etc; (c) New technologies: flat wire, 4680 battery, Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) etc.
(2) photovoltaic: the demand margin is upward and new technological breakthroughs are emphasized. Huadian Group expects to open the bidding of 15gw components after the festival to further clarify the important directions such as double-sided and large-size; The n-type batteries of leading companies such as Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) and Jingke energy are expected to gradually increase in volume and continue to lead the technological upgrading of the industry. The short-term contradiction of photovoltaic is that the demand is not fully straightened out due to the relatively high component price. It is expected that the second half of the year is better than the first half of the year (silicon material is fully released). We are mainly optimistic about three directions: (a) power station development market + power market-oriented reform; (b) Terminal links such as components and inverters with good competition pattern; (c) In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the innovation of the industrial end (heterojunction, granular silicon, etc.) and the improvement of the market share of advantageous leading companies.
(3) wind power: the wind and scenery base is expected to exceed expectations and improve the short-term cost performance. The second batch of large base planning has been basically completed, with a total scale of more than 400gw (the first batch of 97.05gw), which will be implemented during the 14th and 15th five year plans, and there will be a relatively large amount arranged in the 15th five year plan; Mainly in kubri, Tengger and other deserts. At present, the price of wind power manufacturers continues to decline, the economic ranking of power station construction is high, the short-term industry growth rate is accelerated, and the certainty is strong. They are optimistic about offshore wind power + large-scale + core parts, Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) and other companies.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) comments: the profit exceeded expectations, and the global king of lithium battery continues to lead the upward trend of the industry
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) released the performance forecast for 2021, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 14-16.5 billion yuan. Fourth quarter earnings far exceeded expectations. We analyzed the following reasons for exceeding expectations: (1) the supply of high-quality batteries is in short supply, and the price of battery products increases; (2) The company proactively reserves a large number of raw materials in short supply in the industry in advance to avoid the sharp price increase of lithium carbonate and other raw materials since Q4 in 2021, which will affect the profit margin level; (3) The profits of energy storage business, recycling and other raw material related businesses increased. The company’s control over the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, understanding of the product price cycle, and the courage and execution of the purchasing end are still one level higher than those of its competitors.
Sector and company tracking
New energy vehicle industry: magnetic levitation technology, power battery capacity jumped 3-5 times, new path new energy vehicle company: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) performance exceeded expectations, and the net profit is expected to be 14 billion ~ 16.5 billion yuan in 2021. Photovoltaic industry level: Biden government said it would The 201 tariff levied on modules will be extended for another four years at the photovoltaic company level: Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) the deduction of non net profit of RMB 3.5 billion-3.9 billion will be realized in 2021
Risk warning: the development of new technologies exceeds expectations, the demand is lower than expectations, and the competition in the new energy market is intensified
