Price: steel price differentiation this week. This week (from January 24 to January 30, the same in the text) the price of 20mmhrb400 thread was 4730 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 4960 yuan / ton, which was – 0.2% compared with that of last week. Raw material prices rose this week. This week, the price of iron ore in the port rose compared with last week; Coke prices were flat compared with last week; Scrap prices were flat with last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar fell this week. In terms of long-term process, it is estimated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week is – 62 yuan / ton, – 63 yuan / ton and – 72 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of EAF steel this week was flat compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week, the output of deformed steel bars declined on a weekly basis, while that of the five major steel mills and social warehouses increased on a weekly basis. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.13 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 31300 tons, of which the output of construction steel decreased by 30400 tons, the output of sector increased by 61700 tons, and the output of rebar decreased by 29100 tons to 2606800 tons this week. In terms of different steelmaking methods, the output of long and short process deformed steel bars this week were 2.5368 million tons and 70000 tons respectively, and the cycle to cycle ratio was + 63700 tons and – 92800 tons respectively. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties increased by 1447000 tons to 11.1486 million tons, the total inventory of steel mills increased by 4.3593 million tons, and the total inventory of steel mills increased by 116400 tons, including 1.047 million tons of rebar social warehouse and 125900 tons of factory warehouse. In terms of apparent consumption and steel transaction, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 1.4762 million tons, with a decrease of 706100 tons on a weekly basis.
The State Council issued the comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction in the 14th five year plan. By 2025, the energy consumption per unit of China’s GDP will be 13.5% lower than that in 2020. We will focus on iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemical and chemical industries to promote energy-saving transformation and in-depth treatment of pollutants. Promote energy-saving technologies such as high-efficiency rectification system, high-temperature and high-pressure coke dry quenching and oxygen enriched enhanced smelting, and encourage the transformation of blast furnace converter long process steelmaking into electric furnace short process steelmaking.
Investment suggestion: under the background of steady growth of infrastructure construction, the construction in relevant fields is expected to be faster than in previous years, and the steel consumption may be started in advance. During the “Winter Olympic Games” on the supply side, the production restriction in the North continues, and the release of steel output is limited. In addition, the social inventory of steel before the Spring Festival and the inventory level of steel mills are much lower than that in the same period of the lunar calendar last year, and the marginal improvement probability of steel fundamentals after the festival is high, The center of gravity of steel price may gradually rise. On the raw material side, before the festival, the national development and Reform Commission intensively issued a document emphasizing the crackdown on illegal price behaviors in the spot and futures markets of coal and iron ore, and the raw material price is expected to fall. On the whole, the marginal improvement of steel fundamentals after the festival is expected to be strong, the center of gravity of steel prices may gradually rise, and the profits of steel mills are expected to gradually recover. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel sector: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel sector: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Target of Superalloy: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; 4) Target of graphite electrode: Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply.
