Core view:
Market review: last week was the last week before the Spring Festival holiday. Last week, the mechanical equipment index fell 4.74%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 17.99%, and the gem index fell 11.41%. Machinery and equipment ranked 13th in the rise and fall of all 28 industries. After excluding negative values, the valuation level of the machinery industry is 23.9 (overall method). Last week, the top three sectors in the machinery industry were wind power equipment, lithium battery equipment and photovoltaic equipment; The top three segments with year to date growth are oil and gas development equipment, engineering machinery and wind power equipment.
Zhou focus: at the beginning of the 2022 Spring Festival, we continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities of the mechanical equipment industry under the general trend of manufacturing upgrading
Looking forward to 2022, we believe that this round of investment opportunities in mechanical equipment manufacturing industry will still come from the sectors related to manufacturing investment in the future, especially the manufacturing upgrading under the scientific and technological revolution & energy revolution, which is in line with the development trend of the times. In addition, China needs the support of a number of small and beautiful invisible champion enterprises in the process of moving from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing power. We believe that mining the scientific and technological revolution, energy revolution and specialized, special and new high-quality stocks are still the main investment lines of the mechanical equipment industry in 2022.
Photovoltaic equipment: in 2021, the installed capacity of photovoltaic equipment increased by 53gw, with a year-on-year increase of 10%. In 2022, we will pay attention to the progress of TOPCON and hjt projects. According to the disclosure of the national energy administration, 54.88gw of photovoltaic installed capacity will be added in 2021. According to the prediction of the photovoltaic Association, the global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 270-330gw in 2025, and the five-year compound growth rate will reach 22.4%. Behind photovoltaic becoming the main energy is the continuous cost reduction and efficiency increase, and the core of cost reduction and efficiency increase is the technical iteration, in which the equipment is the key link, so the equipment flexibility is higher. Under the general trend of carbon neutralization, the demand of all links in the photovoltaic industry chain continues to release. At the same time, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvement, all links of silicon wafer, battery chip and module have the power to continuously expand production, accelerate the elimination and clearance of backward production capacity, expand the scale of advantageous production capacity and seize the profit window. In addition, the rapid technological change shortens the equipment life cycle, which makes the photovoltaic equipment industry reflect strong growth attributes.
Power exchange equipment: on January 18, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) times electric service held its first press conference online to release the power exchange service brand evogo and the overall solution of combined power exchange. Power exchange stations are also actively arranged in the industry. According to the plans announced by various companies at present, in addition to the repeated data of cooperation, according to incomplete statistics, there will be at least 20000 new power exchange stations in China by 2025.
Investment suggestions: continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities in the mechanical equipment industry under the general trend of manufacturing upgrading. The key investment directions are the three main lines of scientific and technological revolution, energy revolution and specialized special new. The recommended segments include investment opportunities in photovoltaic equipment, emerging equipment related to the new energy vehicle industry chain, and invisible champion enterprises specialized in special new mechanical equipment. Related objects of photovoltaic equipment: Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) , etc. It is suggested to pay attention to power exchange equipment and related targets Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) , Bozhon Precision Industry Technology Co.Ltd(688097) , Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) etc. Specialized, special and new key recommendations Shareate Tools Ltd(688257) .
Risk warning: covid-19 pneumonia epidemic situation is repeated; The degree of policy promotion is less than expected; Manufacturing investment fell.
