Under the tone of steady growth, there is still much room for improvement in environmental protection and energy projects. Steady growth and low-carbon are an organic whole driven by each other. Steady growth provides preconditions and conditions for low-carbon. Only economic growth can have greater ability to improve environmental quality; Low carbon indicates the direction and driving force for steady growth. Only by protecting the earth’s home can we optimize the allocation of resources and obtain new driving forces for development. The two are unified, and we will embark on a high-quality development path of energy transformation, pollution reduction, environmental improvement, avoiding climate disasters, and continuously improving people’s production and living standards.
The construction of power market with the direction of national unified power market is taking shape. According to the data released by China electricity Union, in 2021, the national market-oriented trading power was 3.7 trillion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, accounting for 44.6% of the total social power consumption, nearly seven times that of 2015, with an average annual growth of about 40%. The medium – and long-term trading and ancillary services markets are basically covered. The first eight spot pilots have entered the settlement trial operation stage, and the second six spot pilots have also started construction. The power market construction based on the provincial power market, taking the cross provincial and cross regional market as the breakthrough and taking the national unified power market as the direction has begun to take shape.
The market demand for cement and glass is expected to pick up after the festival. With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the market will gradually start and recover. It is expected that the operating rate of downstream construction sites will show a steady upward trend, the cement market demand will pick up, and the upward demand will drive the increase of cement price. In terms of supply, according to the staggered peak kiln shutdown plan announced by various provinces across the country, the number of kiln shutdown days in the first quarter generally exceeded that in the same period last year. It is expected that the cement supply will remain stable after the festival. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the cement area. As of the Spring Festival, the spot price of float glass continued to rise. Traders in the middle and lower reaches have high enthusiasm for preparing goods before the festival, which has driven the rise of glass prices to a certain extent. With the rise of the operating rate after the festival and the expectation of replenishment of small and medium-sized processing enterprises, it is expected that the glass market demand will grow steadily, driving the price of float glass to further increase.
Under the background of steady growth, there is no need to worry too much on the coal demand side. At present, the high-intensity measures to increase production and ensure supply and the high load production state of coal mines are difficult to be sustained for a long time. The two sessions in March are coming, the “20th National Congress” will be held in the second half of the year, the intensity of safety supervision and environmental protection will only increase, and the supply and demand pattern will be better. In the short and medium term, the task of “six guarantees and six stabilities” of macro economy in 2022 is arduous. Phased and regional economic stimulus policies may further stimulate the enthusiasm of upstream resource products procurement and boost the investment sentiment and return on investment of the coal sector.
Investment suggestions: environmental protection and public utilities: recommended China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) (600905. SH), Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (600011. SH), Henan Bccy Environmental Energy Co.Ltd(300614) (300614. SZ), Grandblue Environment Co.Ltd(600323) (600323. SH), Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) (603588. SH), Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) (002266. SZ), Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) (688087. SH). Building materials: ad shares (002641. SZ), Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) (002791. SZ), Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) (000786. SZ), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) (002271. SZ), Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) (300737. SZ), Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) (002372. SZ), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636. SH), China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) (600176. SH) are recommended. Coal: recommended China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (601088. SH), Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) (601225. SH), Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) (000983. SZ), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (000723), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (600348).
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; The risk that the downstream demand is less than expected; The risk that the landing effect of production restriction is not as good as expected; The risk that the policy strength is less than expected; The risk that the new capacity of the industry exceeds the expectation; The risk of sharp decline in coal prices under the pressure of policy regulation.
