The new energy vehicle market continued to be hot in January, and the impact of subsidy decline gradually weakened, entering the market driving period
In January 2022, Xiaopeng, ideal, Nezha and Weilai delivered 12922, 12268, 11009 and 9652 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 115%, 128%, 402% and 34% respectively; Byd Company Limited(002594) and GAC ea’an sold 93168 and 16031 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 362% and 118% respectively. New energy vehicles show their resilience and trend in the traditional off-season before and after the Spring Festival. On the one hand, they gradually eliminate the market’s concerns about orders and delivery at the beginning of the year. On the other hand, they can also show that the impact of the price rise in the middle and upper reaches of lithium batteries on vehicle demand is limited, and the impact of subsidy decline is gradually fading.
Limited price increases, car manufacturers give priority to models and markets, battery manufacturers ease the cost pressure, and look forward to the metal linkage mechanism
Tesla, Xiaopeng, Nezha, Volkswagen ID, Byd Company Limited(002594) , GAC and other auto companies raised the prices of some new energy models, mainly due to the impact of the rise in the price of raw materials and the decline of subsidies. The price increase models are limited, and the price increase range and implementation time are different. In the short term, the current resources of automobile enterprises tend to be new energy vehicles, control the safety of the supply chain, quickly launch models and occupy the market, and give higher priority to models and market layout; The price rise in the middle and upper reaches of lithium battery in varying degrees gives the battery factory cost pressure, or it will be alleviated to a certain extent by negotiating the price with the vehicle factory and further transmitting it to the terminal. At the same time, the annual sales volume also verifies that the demand for new energy vehicles remains high; In the long run, the decline of lithium battery cost curve and the steady development of industrial chain can continuously promote the penetration of new energy vehicles and the rationalization of profits in all links. An effective and reasonable metal linkage pricing mechanism is a favorable direction for the progress of the industry.
With the abortion of the largest lithium project in Europe and the brewing of lithium organization in South America, the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to alleviate, and the lithium performance is gradually realized
The Serbian government stopped Rio Tinto jadar lithium project for political and environmental reasons, showing the difficulty and long-term cycle of lithium resource development; The three major lithium resource countries in South America are discussing the establishment of an organization of lithium producing countries. If it is formed, it is expected to optimize the lithium supply pattern and further coordinate and standardize the industry, which is conducive to maintaining the high price of lithium. However, the increment of lithium supply in the medium and short term is limited, the contradiction between supply and demand strongly supports the high price of lithium, and the supply of lithium salt may become the decisive factor for the release of capacity in the middle and lower reaches, and the profit will move up; The 2021q4 performance forecast has shown that companies that stably produce lithium salts benefit from the upward price of lithium and realize their performance. It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality lithium targets with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources, stable output at low cost and continuous expansion of production.
Three main lines of investment suggestions: first, release of production capacity, relief of cost pressure and recovery of gross profit. Battery plants: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) ; 2. Lithium resource companies with high lithium price supported by supply and demand and expected to realize excess profits: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Three midstream material link companies with clear pattern, obvious advantages and tight supply and demand: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , etc.
Risk warning: the development of new energy vehicles is not as expected; Disruptive breakthroughs in related technologies; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Product prices fell more than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates.
