During Baijiu Festival, we visited 20 cigarette and liquor vendor outlets in 6 provinces of Zhejiang, Hunan, Shandong, Shanxi, Anhui and Yunnan, and tracked the terminal sales of liquor, condiment and snack food. At the same time, combined with the grass-roots research before the festival, this paper attempts to restore the terminal sales of each sub section of food and beverage during the Spring Festival.
Baijiu: the impact of the epidemic is gradually weakening, and recovery + upgrading is on the way. On the whole, the impact of the epidemic has gradually weakened, and the feedback from various regions is better as a whole despite some differentiation. The feedback from front-line hotels is relatively poor, but the feedback from front-line supermarkets is relatively poor. In terms of price bands, the high-end is still stable, the medium and high price bands benefit from consumption recovery + upgrading, and the upgrading of local wine is obvious. Feedback from all over the grassroots is a smooth choice for high-end Baijiu, which is the best choice for the Spring Festival. The secondary high-end blue and white 30 revival version has successfully upgraded the old 30. Blue and white 20 has increased in large quantities, and the terminal transaction price is mostly concentrated at about 430 yuan. Yanghe M6 + has been upgraded successfully, and the transaction price is about 780-800 yuan. The introduction of M3 crystal version is in progress, and Gujing, kouzi and Yanghe are strong in Anhui market.
Condiment: Generally speaking, the channel inventory of condiment sector tends to be benign, the terminal promotion efforts are narrowed, and there is no large-scale stacking display. The transmission of price increase channels of most categories in condiment sector is relatively smooth, the terminal price has increased steadily, and the dynamic sales is also in a benign state. According to categories:
1) soy sauce: the price increase is conducted steadily, and the age of terminal goods is narrowed. In the supermarkets we visited, the price of soy sauce increased slightly. From the perspective of distribution, the overall distribution area of condiments narrowed, and there was no obvious promotion. From the perspective of brand distribution, in the supermarkets we visited, Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) still occupied the leading position, and the distribution of Chubang and Jiajia in Anhui increased significantly. Haitian’s cargo age in various regions is mostly in the range of 1-4 months, and the dynamic sales are benign. In some regions, Qianhe has also increased the stacking display, and the average age of goods in various regions ranges from 1 to 4 months.
2) vinegar: the regional pattern is highly differentiated, and Hengshun mobile sales are better. Hengshun has an advantage in distribution in most regions, but some regional brands have better dynamic sales in their strong regions, such as Zilin in Shanxi. Hengshun’s big single product strategy has gradually focused. SKU has been reduced compared with the same period last year, and the dynamic sales are relatively benign. The average age of the terminal is about 4 months. At the same time, new multi tune products such as laotan pickled fish and minced garlic sauce have also begun to be distributed.
3) Polyphony: during the peak sales season, the regional pattern is evolving. At present, the polyphonic industry is still in the process of reform. Some small brands in Zhejiang have begun to withdraw gradually, and the comparative advantages of Haidilao and Tianwei are obvious. However, in some regions, such as Anhui, the types and distribution efforts of small brands are still increasing. Some brands cut in with the low price strategy (the selling price of some small brand products is 1 / 4 of Tianwei), and the dynamic sales are still weaker than Haidilao and Haoren, The average age of good families in Anhui narrowed slightly from 1.3 months to 4.6 months.
4) pickled mustard: the terminal price increases, and the transmission varies from place to place. According to the interview, the terminal price of Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) in most regions has been raised smoothly, but some supermarkets in some regions have returned the price increase to channels in the form of discount (such as Zhejiang), and some supermarkets in some regions have not raised the terminal price (such as Anhui). In terms of the age of goods, the age of Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) goods in some areas has been lengthened, and the age of goods in some areas exceeds 5 months.
Small food: Qiaqia melon seeds are relatively new, and the sinking of nut channel is accelerated. The Spring Festival is the peak sales season for small foods, especially gift box products. According to our terminal visit, the price increase range of some products of Qiaqia melon seeds ranges from 20-25%, and the negative impact of the price increase on dynamic sales is weak, and the age of channel goods is mostly within one month. At the same time, Qiaqia accelerated its penetration into the township market by using small yellow bag roof gift boxes, and increased the distribution of new products such as oatmeal.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; The risk of intensified industry competition; Food safety risks; Risk of recurrent outbreaks; Sample selection bias risk.
