Securities: in the last week before the Spring Festival, the market trading was light, and the average daily turnover decreased by 250 billion to 0.85 trillion month on month; The balance of the two loans (January 27) continued to fall to 1.74 trillion, of which the scale of financing and securities lending continued to fall. Due to the superposition of internal and external factors, the recent market volatility has intensified, and the depth and breadth of the impact of the two financing business guidance previously issued by the two financing Committee of China Securities Association may increase. It is expected that in the future, securities companies will strictly control the entry of the two financial services, and the enthusiasm of customers to participate in the two financial services will be weakened. The two financial services will face the two-way suppression of the supply side and the demand side, or there will be continuous negative feedback with the market. At the policy level, the CSRC issued the guidance on improving the quality of prospectus information disclosure under the registration system over the weekend to strengthen the import management on the recent illegal acts of various intermediaries in the investment banking business, reduce the possibility of fraud in all links of the enterprise listing process and protect the rights and interests of investors. Some time ago, due to the explosion of many projects of law firms, the progress of some IPO projects stalled. The launch of opinions is expected to reduce the risk of adverse selection and internal control of institutions, and maintain the smooth progress of the comprehensive registration system. In addition, in the middle of the week, the Fund Industry Association released the data on the sales retention scale of public funds of fund sales institutions by the end of 2021, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and ant fund still ranked in the top two, and the scale of non commodity base increased by 89.1 billion and 103.1 billion respectively compared with the end of the third quarter, and Tiantian fund surpassed ICBC in the third place.
CITIC, Huatai and GF ranked among the top three securities companies, ranking 14th, 18th and 19th respectively in the industry, which was the same as that in the third quarter. It can be seen from the quarterly data that the head of fund consignment institutions is becoming more and more obvious, and the differentiation characteristics continue to appear. Although the growth rate of the consignment scale of the three major securities companies is lower than that of the head institutions, they still have an absolute advantage in the industry. It is expected that the competition for fund consignment will become increasingly fierce in the future. How to give full play to their own advantages and improve the market share will become one of the core elements of whether the wealth management logic can be fulfilled. To sum up, under the expectation of accelerating the promotion of the comprehensive registration system, strengthening the multi-level supervision of the capital market may become the theme of the year. Combined with the recent sharp market fluctuations, it is expected that the sector investment will refocus on the head value targets with strong internal control ability and high performance certainty.
Insurance: at the weekend, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission publicly solicited opinions on the measures for the administration of insurance guarantee funds (Draft for comments). There are two major changes in the draft for comments: 1 Adjust from fixed rate (0.8% of premium income) to benchmark rate and risk difference rate; 2. Establish a financing mechanism between property insurance and life insurance guarantee funds. The above two changes will affect the payment scale of insurance enterprises, and then have a certain impact on the performance. Recently, there has been no significant improvement in the industry fundamentals. Considering the implementation of the new regulations of the second generation and the repeated epidemic situation, and the massive loss of superimposed agents, the difficulty of developing the industry of insurance enterprises is still high; In addition, the change of residents’ consumption concept and consumption structure continues to reduce the demand for margin long-term guaranteed products, so it is too early to judge the inflection point of the industry. At present, the lengthening of the investment cycle of the subject matter of insurance is a high probability event. In 2022, we propose to continue to focus on the impact of strong regulatory policies on the business development of insurance enterprises. It is expected that the adjustment pressure at both ends of the asset burden of insurance enterprises will still exist, and the recovery of automobile insurance will precede that of life insurance.
Sector performance: during the five trading days from January 24 to January 28, the non bank sector fell by 5.26% as a whole. According to the industry classification standard of Shenwan, the non bank ranked 16 / 31 of all industries; Among them, the securities sector fell 4.63% and the insurance sector fell 6.69%, both underperforming the CSI 300 index (- 4.51%). In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers of securities companies were Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (1.53%), Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) (1.15%), Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) (- 1.41%), China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) (- 1.82%) and Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) (- 2.07%); The rise and fall of insurance companies were The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) (- 3.60%), New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (- 6.30%), Hubei Biocause Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000627) (- 6.51%), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (- 6.69%), China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (- 6.70%), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (- 6.91%) and Xishui Strong Year Co.Ltd Inner Mongolia(600291) (- 17.11%).
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risk, policy risk, market risk and liquidity risk.
