Market situation: this week (1.22-1.28), the A-share real estate index (Shenwan real estate) increased by - 4.20% (2.22% last week), and the A-share market (wandequan a) increased by - 5.01% (1.03% last week); The H-share real estate index (kroney real estate leading index) rose - 6.97% (8.85% last week), and the H-share market (Hang Seng Index) rose - 5.67% (2.39% last week). This week, the performance of A-share real estate sector was stronger than the market, and the performance of H-share real estate sector was weaker than the market.
Industry fundamentals:
The decline of new house sales expanded, and the new house sales data in the second, third and fourth tier cities fell sharply, but the second-hand house transactions in the first and second tier cities recovered. From the data, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in 45 cities (1.1 ~ 1.25) was - 22.7% year-on-year, and - 13.0% year-on-year in the whole month of last month; The transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities (1.1 ~ 1.26) was - 22.4% year-on-year, and - 26.7% year-on-year in the whole month of last month.
As the decline of commencement data is more severe, the inventory of new houses and decontamination cycle still decline under the condition of sales decline. According to the data, the de commercialization cycle of commercial housing in 15 cities (as of 1.28) was 498 days, compared with 528 days in the same period last month.
In the case of sluggish sales of developers and tight capital, the supply and demand of the land market are weak, and the land transaction has declined sharply. According to the data, the cumulative land construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities this year (as of 1.30) was - 74.8% year-on-year and - 73.1% year-on-year last week; The premium rate of land transaction in 100 large and medium-sized cities (1.24 ~ 1.30) this week was 0.7% and 0.2% last week; The total land transaction price of 100 large and medium-sized cities this year (up to 1.30) was - 82.2% year-on-year, and - 79.3% year-on-year last week.
Domestic debt financing weakened year-on-year, foreign debt and trust financing continued to be weak, and the industry financing situation remained severe. From the data, the issuance scale of domestic real estate bonds (1.1 ~ 1.31) has accumulated - 57.5% year-on-year, and 8.7% year-on-year in the whole month of last month; The issuance scale of overseas real estate bonds (1.1 ~ 1.31) accumulated - 86.7% year-on-year, and - 81.8% year-on-year in the whole month of last month; The scale of trust financing (1.1 ~ 1.31) accumulated - 84.7% year-on-year, and - 64.5% year-on-year in the whole month of last month.
Investment strategy: the investment intention of real estate enterprises is essentially determined by sales expectations, so the stability of the demand side is very important. Recently, with the decline of housing loan interest rate, some cities have implemented demand side policies such as the loosening of down payment ratio. We believe that the focus of the policy is shifting from the risk of real estate enterprises' capital to the risk of vicious circle caused by the stall and decline on the demand side. The follow-up demand side care policy is expected to accelerate the landing and stabilize the expectations of buyers. The direction may be to meet the reasonable needs of buyers by adjusting the purchase restrictions. The purchase restriction policy in some regions may be adjusted to release part of the purchase demand and reverse the decline in both volume and price at the sales end.
We believe that the care policy of the financing section will promote high credit real estate enterprises to gain advantages in the land and M & a market. The continuous land acquisition and promotion ability and high-quality credit endorsement are also expected to seize the opportunity when the demand recovers and further improve the market share. Recommended China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) . It is also recommended to continuously track the stable private real estate enterprises, such as Longhu group and country garden.
Risk tip: the risk of further tightening industrial policies, the risk of continued decline in profitability, and the risk of sales falling short of expectations.
