Affected by pre holiday sentiment, short-term game, industrial cognition and other factors, Shenwan computer sector pulled back nearly 10% from 1 / 18 to 18 years ago. Before the year, the computer industry made a significant correction, and the correction range of Shenwan computer sector reached – 9.31% between 1 / 18 and 1 / 28. The main reasons are as follows: 1) near the Spring Festival holiday, there is a certain demand for holding money for the holiday, and the mood was light before the year. 2) Since November last year, the computer industry began to rise. The short-term increase is too large and needs to be adjusted. 3) The computer industry chain is flat and opaque, and it is difficult to recognize. It needs a certain cognitive process to establish the confidence of medium and long-term positions.
The medium and long-term growth trend is determined, and the position is still at a historical low. The growth of the computer industry is characterized by medium growth but strong sustainability. The short-term correction does not change the growth trend with high medium and long-term certainty, and the current public offering position is still at a historical low: 1) the position proportion of the public offering fund 2021q4 in the computer industry is 4.2%, close to the multi-year low since 2013, and according to the latest statistical data of wind, In the whole industry, 2021q2 only ranks 10th in the market value of computer positions. 2) In 2021q4, the proportion of over allocation in the computer industry was about – 0.51%, roughly the same as that in the previous quarter. Overall, the computer industry in 2021 is still in the state of low allocation, and the situation of over allocation is lower than that in 2020.
Continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities of the industry, the industrial logic is clear, and the comparative advantage of the industry is obvious under the weak recession. As early as last October’s weekly report, we proposed that weak recession is the best beta environment for computers. The overall industrial chain of the computer industry is flat, with high opacity, medium growth rate but strong sustainability and large space. From top to bottom, the computer is expected to obtain the best comparative advantage in the weak recession environment, and we predicted the performance of smart cars, digital RMB, information innovation and other fields in the new year in the 2022 annual strategy report. Considering the current weak recession environment, the characteristics of large space in the computer industry and the current more reasonable valuation position, we believe that the computer industry has clear industrial logic, reasonable valuation, established comparative advantages and active conditions. We continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the industry.
Investment suggestion: Digital Economy: 1) digital economy base: Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) , Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) , China Greatwall Technology Group Co.Ltd(000066) . 2) Xinchuang and Huawei: Beijing Vastdata Technology Co.Ltd(603138) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , Beijing Baolande Software Corporation(688058) , Urovo Technology Co.Ltd(300531) , Ninestar Corporation(002180) , Digital China Group Co.Ltd(000034) , Beijing Tongtech Co.Ltd(300379) 3) data security: Westone Information Industry Inc(002268) , Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) , Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) . Industrial Digitization: 1) smart car: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Neusoft Corporation(600718) , Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) , Autel Intelligent Technology Corp.Ltd(688208) , Vanjee Technology Co.Ltd(300552) . 2) Dual carbon it: Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) , Ygsoft Inc(002063) , Shenzhen Jieshun Science And Technology Industry Co.Ltd(002609) . 3) Digital RMB: Xgd Inc(300130) , Lakala Payment Co.Ltd(300773) , Grg Banking Equipment Co.Ltd(002152) , Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) , Northking Information Technology Co.Ltd(002987) , Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) , Newcapec Electronics Co.Ltd(300248) , Client Service International Inc(300663) , Beijing Infosec Technologies Co.Ltd(688201) . Medium and long term main line: 1) Artificial Intelligence: Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) , Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) . 2) Cloud Computing: Glodon Company Limited(002410) , Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co.Ltd(002153) , Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) . 3） China Stock Market News 、 Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) 、 Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) 。
Risk warning: the economic downturn exceeded expectations; Financial expenditure is lower than expected; Trade frictions intensified.
