This week (01 / 24-01 / 28), the transportation index fell 2.25%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.51%, outperforming the market by 2.26%, ranking 3 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the railway sector increased the most (0.87%), and the express sector decreased the most (- 5.30%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: we have made solid progress in protecting the legitimate rights and interests of the courier group and achieved positive results. In 2021, the whole process time limit of express service in key regions of China will be 57.08 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 1.15 hours. After deducting the adjustment factors of individual brand enterprises, the overall unit price of express business in December was 9.70 yuan / piece, an increase of 2.26% month on month. In the peak season, the price of express delivery increased, and the performance of express delivery enterprises entered the cashing period. Yuantong released the performance forecast. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 2-2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.20% to 24.52%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 1.046-1.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 174.68% to 227.20%. Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) issued the performance forecast for 2021, with a loss of RMB 840-950 million, mainly due to the asset investment and the provision of asset impairment, which still put pressure on the annual performance. If the impact of the above asset impairment is excluded, the 21q4 performance is expected to be profitable. S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) business strategy adjustment pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of production capacity cycle gradually subsides, actively optimizes product structure and customer structure, lean cost control, Kerry Logistics promotes international business development, and Ezhou airport lays the foundation for future development; With strong certainty in performance restoration, 21q4 made a profit of 2.4-2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39% – 50%, deducting non net profit of 1.45-1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41% – 56%.
Logistics: there is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and other accidents, the strict supervision makes the supply of the industry limited, and the demand side still grows every year. The performance growth of leading chemical logistics enterprises is highly uncertain, focusing on Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co.Ltd(002930) with low valuation. The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Aviation: the aviation department has successively disclosed the performance forecast for 2021. Air China lost 14.5-17 billion yuan, China Eastern lost 11-13.5 billion yuan, China Southern lost 11.3-12.8 billion yuan, Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) lost 330-420 million yuan, and Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) made 35-52 million yuan. The losses in the industry are mainly due to the occurrence of multiple zero satellite sporadic cases and local concentrated epidemics in many places across the country, and the transportation capacity investment and revenue passenger kilometers have decreased. According to the data of flight schedule, in January 2022, the daily average number of flights performed by domestic routes in China was about 9605, returning to the level of about 80% in the same period in 2019; The daily average number of flights for international / regional routes in China is about 129, returning to the level of about 5% in the same period in 2019. In the 20 days before the Spring Festival transportation (from January 17 to February 5), civil aviation passengers are expected to send 16.65 million passengers, an increase of 55.1% over the same period in 2021 and a decrease of 53.1% over the same period in 2019. According to the “14th five year plan” for civil aviation development, the number of take-off and landing sorties will increase by 6.5% annually from 2019 to 2025, and the industry supply will be tightened. On January 20, the State Council issued the tourism development plan for the 14th five year plan, which timely launched the action to promote inbound tourism, and the international line is expected to be relaxed. The success of covid-19 drug research and development will help restore normal production and life, strengthen vaccination and accelerate the promotion of vaccines. The restriction policy is expected to be relaxed. With the superposition of fare market-oriented reform, the airline company’s long-term profit will be better. After the adjustment of the aviation sector, the investment value will be highlighted. It is recommended to actively allocate and focus on Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , Air China Limited(601111) .
Centralized transportation: the CCFI index was 3565.33 points, up 0.28% month on month; The SCFI index was 5010.36 points, down 0.8% month on month. Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) disclosed the announcement of pre increase of performance in 2021, realizing a profit of 89.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 799.3%.
Risk tips
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations.
