I. review and theme of this week:
This week (from January 24 to January 28), Shenwan pharmaceutical index fell 6.83%, ranking 26th in the whole industry, underperforming the CSI 300 index and the gem index. In this week's special topic, we made a detailed interpretation of the pharmaceutical industry development plan in the 14th five year plan, and combed the adjusted pharmaceutical assets in detail.
II. Recent resumption:
Medicine fell sharply in the last week before the festival, and the index continued to reach a new low. There are two main reasons for the decline: on the one hand, the overall decline of the market is due to the rising expectation of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and doubts about the easing of China's monetary policy. Superimposed on the lack of incremental funds years ago, the overall decline of the market is large, driving the continued decline of medicine; On the other hand, after the pharmaceutical index fell by 13.5% in recent ten trading days, the market was worried that the pharmaceutical industry began to interpret the new version of "internal and external worries", that is, the concerns about the ceiling under the public welfare attribute of China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) industry, and the external worries about the quality of innovative drugs and the logic of going to sea in the future under the new international relations. Part of our theme this week is to interpret in detail the "14th five year plan" development plan of the pharmaceutical industry. From the perspective of positioning, it has risen from a simple "important industry related to the national economy and the people's livelihood" to a "strategic industry related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, economic development and national security", and has a detailed plan for the overall goal (see later), This is a very important signal. We still adhere to the view that the underlying logic of medicine and education is completely different.
At present, the market has rebound demands, but there is a lack of consensus direction. After the substantial adjustment before the festival, in the current state of low position and emotional freezing point, the market has the appeal of rebound for the pharmaceutical sector, but in fact, it is difficult to find the appropriate direction. On the one hand, the inherent core assets are more or less faced with some emotional concerns, and the absolute valuation is difficult to be really cheap, In recent months, the main dark line logic "undervalued +" has risen sharply, and the chip results are not so comfortable. In this week's special topic, we also systematically sorted out the adjusted pharmaceutical assets, and made some adjustments from the perspective of medium and short term. See the following for details.
III. sector view:
1. Think from the perspective of several years: if pharmaceutical investment in the past 3-4 years paid more attention to "selecting the head company of the main track and enjoying valuation expansion", and paid more attention to "individual stock cost performance under valuation digestion" in the second half of 2021, then in 2022, we should pay more attention to "the structural rhythm of the first small and the later large". Although they are structural opportunities, their expressions are different. Facing the short-term weakness of medicine, we have stretched our vision. What is the essence of the long-term growth of the pharmaceutical industry? It is the long-term pull of just demand for medicine and the long-term pull of health consumption upgrading, and the current demand satisfaction and penetration rate are very low, which is the most long-term logic of medicine. However, because we are worried about the reform policy of the payment end, we seem to ignore this essence. The payment end policy will not be the long-term logic restriction of a rigid industry, which is at most a medium-term and short-term interference item. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic. GDP growth is in the downward stage, the economic structure continues to adjust, while China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) industry is in the early stage of growth, there is a reverse scissors gap, and the comparative advantage is strengthened. With the release of the population data of Qipu, China's population structure is undergoing great changes. In the future, the development logic of many industries driven by the huge demographic dividend will face great changes. The market will pay more and more attention to and look for industries with comparative advantages of incremental attributes, The industry with long logical cycle and strong certainty ranks at the top of the list is medicine (the aging is intensifying, the expansion of just needed medicine, the upgrading of health consumption is intensifying, and the penetration rate of consumer medicine is increasing). In the future, the allocation funds of consumer medicine will strengthen the allocation of medicine from the medium and long-term dimension, resulting in the improvement of the overall water level of medicine, which is optimistic in the long term. The long-term 4 + X strategic thinking remains unchanged: the upgrading of pharmaceutical science and technology, pharmaceutical consumption, pharmaceutical manufacturing and pharmaceutical mode.
2. Medium and short term: medicine has entered the medium and long-term layout range, and the medium and short term is still bottom-up. Medicine has been adjusted to this range. In fact, many good assets have fallen out of value. Although it is difficult to systematically catalyze in the short term, it has entered the allocation range in the medium and long term. In the short and medium term, in fact, there is no systematic solution. Our idea is still to choose individual stocks from bottom to top. There are three points to sum up: 1) choose to have "valuation discount under fundamental rational valuation", in other words, it falls into the area of irrational valuation. 2) In the past, it was certain that the chip structure of small targets was good, but in the process of the sharp decline of large targets and the continuous rise of some underestimated targets, it is difficult to say who is good and who is bad in the chip structure. At this time, we can start to weaken the consideration of market value. 3) Select policy encouragement, at least policy immunization. Such as vaccine, covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain, traditional Chinese medicine, rehabilitation, self-control, etc.
3. Configuration idea:
* consumption upgrading: (1) vaccines: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc(688319) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) ; (2) Selected traditional Chinese medicines: Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Shandong Buchang Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(603858) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Zhejiang Conba Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600572) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) ; (3) Rehabilitation: Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) , Beijing Chieftain Control Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300430) etc; (4) Ophthalmology: Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300573) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) .
* Manufacturing Upgrading: (1) upstream of biomedicine ( Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) , Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) ); (2) {30082759}, {30082756}, {3006036}; (3) API systematic upgrade ( Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) ); (4) Injection outlet ( Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) ).
* innovation and upgrading: (1) CGT ( Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Northland, Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) ); (2) Platform innovation recovery ( Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) ); (3) Internationalization of innovation ( Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ); (4) Nuclear drug ( Yantai Dongcheng Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002675) ).
* core repair: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) .
* other long-term tracking and promising targets: Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) , Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) , {{605186186} {{{605186186} Inkon Life Technology Co.Ltd(300143) Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) { Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) { Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) { Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) {{ Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) { Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) { Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) {000538 8 8} {68818189}, {{6886868613} {{{{{{{68868613}} {{{{{{300688189} {{} {{30068686868685}}, {{30068677 7} {{{{{{{{{{603603603603603888888882} {{{{558}, Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(002294) Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) , China biopharmaceutical, Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300357) , Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) , Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600998) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Joincare Pharmaceutical Group Industry Co.Ltd(600380) , Guangzhou Jet Bio-Filtration Co.Ltd(688026) , Shanghai Kindly Enterprises Development Group Co.Ltd(603987) , etc.
Risk tips: 1) negative policies continue to exceed expectations; 2) The growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; 3) There may be errors in assumptions or calculations.
