Market performance:
In the current period (2022.1.25-2022.1.28), the non bank (Shenwan) index was – 5.26%, ranking 16 / 31 in the industry, the brokerage II index was – 4.63%, and the insurance II index was – 6.69%; Shanghai Composite Index – 4.57%, Shenzhen Component Index – 5.00%, gem index – 4.14%.
The top five stocks (+ 0.81%} 1 {3}) and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) 1} 3 {3} 3} 600000 (+ 0.81%);
The rise and fall of individual stocks ranked among the top five: Shenzhen Asia Link Technology Development Co.Ltd(002316) (- 36.37%), Gi Technologies Group Co.Ltd(300309) (- 22.90%), Xishui Strong Year Co.Ltd Inner Mongolia(600291) (- 17.11%), Easy Visible Supply Chain Management Co.Ltd(600093) (- 14.96%), Shanghai Greencourt Investment Group Co.Ltd(600695) B (- 13.30%).
Core view
Securities companies: in the market, the securities sector followed the market correction this week, with a total decline of 4.63%, basically the same as the market decline. The market performance is sluggish. As of January 28, the turnover has been less than trillion for six consecutive trading days, and fell to less than 800 billion yuan on January 26. This week, the net sales of northbound funds were 26.1 billion yuan, including 15.465 billion yuan for Shanghai Stock connect and 10.606 billion yuan for Shenzhen Stock connect. In terms of the performance of the securities sector, individual stocks fell generally except Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) . This week’s sharp decline in market sentiment is mainly due to the impact of the international environment. The rapid changes in peripheral markets have an impact on China’s stock market. On the one hand, on January 27, the Federal Reserve announced a resolution that the Federal Reserve was ready to raise interest rates in March and began to reduce its balance sheet after raising interest rates. The US interest rate hike in advance had a certain impact on the rhythm of China’s monetary easing, and the steady growth signal released by the interest rate cut policy did not completely eliminate the doubts of investors. On the other hand, the situation in Europe continued to heat up, the situation in Ukraine was volatile, and the market risk appetite decreased.
In terms of performance, as of January 28, a total of 20 listed securities companies have published performance express or performance forecast. At present, the operating revenue of 20 securities companies that have published unaudited performance data totaled 91.491 billion yuan, an increase of about 45.82% year-on-year compared with last year (the profit range published is calculated according to the average), and the net profit attributable to the parent of 20 securities companies has achieved positive growth. At present, the top securities companies that have announced their performance have performed well. The net profit attributable to the parent company of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) has exceeded 10 billion yuan. Among them, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) as the leader of the industry, its performance far exceeds that of other securities companies. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 76.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 22.979 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.2%. In terms of performance growth, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) increased the most, with a year-on-year increase of 360.20% – 436.90%. Followed by Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , which achieved a substantial increase of 85% – 105%, and China stock market news rose 71.62% – 86.27%. Securities companies with an increase of 50% or more also include Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) , and the performance of listed securities companies is outstanding. In 2021, the reform of the registration system was steadily promoted and the Beijing stock exchange was officially opened. At the same time, the market trading is active, the turnover of more than trillion yuan has become the norm, the scale of the fund market has continued to grow, the number of institutional investors has increased, and the transformation of wealth management has been steadily promoted. Brokerage, asset management and investment banking have become performance growth points, and the industry performance is expected to achieve a high-level growth second only to 2015.
At present, the market continues to fluctuate, and we are firmly optimistic about two main lines of the securities sector: one is to pay attention to the leading securities companies with high growth rate of industry performance and undervalued value, such as Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , and the other is to pay attention to the securities companies benefiting from wealth management, such as Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) .
Insurance: the insurance sector fell by 6.69% this week, losing 3002.18pct in Shanghai and Shenzhen and 2.11pct in Shanghai stock index. The stock prices of Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) , New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) rose by – 6.69%, – 3.60%, – 6.30%, – 6.91% and – 6.70% respectively, which converged with the trend of a shares, reflecting a strong trend β Property, the insurance sector followed the market correction and gradually entered the bottom building stage, and the reversal expectation is not obvious. The past year has been a year of continuous decline in the valuation of the insurance sector. With the improvement of the operating data at the beginning of the year and the mid and late stage of the internal adjustment of the industry, we believe that it is very close to the bottom of the valuation, but it will take some time for investor confidence to recover.
On January 26, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the guiding opinions on the digital transformation of the banking and insurance industry, which should improve the data governance and application ability from four aspects: improving the data governance system, enhancing the data management ability, strengthening the data quality control and improving the data application ability. We should strengthen our own scientific and technological capacity-building, increase the elastic supply of data center infrastructure, improve the support capacity of scientific and technological architecture, promote the agile transformation of scientific and technological management, and improve the application and independent control ability of new technologies. In recent years, the structure and demand of policyholders are undergoing profound changes. The adjustment of agent team and comprehensive reform of auto insurance are specific measures to adapt to these changes. Digital transformation is the only way for insurance companies to change. Insurance companies that take the lead in planning the layout in financial technology and digital transformation may seize the opportunity of the next round of development.
Risk tips: strengthened supervision, intensified external market risks, market fluctuations and repeated epidemics
