Key investment points
Since the beginning of the year, the sector has lagged slightly behind the market: this week, the chemical (Shenwan) industry index fell by - 3.26%, the gem index fell by - 4.14%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by - 4.51%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by - 4.57%, and the chemical (Shenwan) sector led the market by 1.31 percentage points. Since the beginning of 2022, the chemical (Shenwan) industry index has fallen by - 10.59%, the gem index by - 12.45%, the CSI 300 index by - 7.62%, the Shanghai Composite Index by - 7.65%, and the chemical (Shenwan) sector lags behind the market by - 2.94 percentage points.
Event: in December, the volume and price of sucralose exports rose simultaneously. According to the customs data, the export volume of sucralose in December 2021 was 1269.43 tons, an increase of 13.59% month on month, and the price was 314800 yuan / ton, an increase of 21.81% month on month. In the fourth quarter alone, the performance of pesticide preparation enterprises increased significantly. According to wind, Andorra is expected to make a net profit of 132 million yuan to 184 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% to 43.8%, turning losses into profits compared with the third quarter; Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) it is estimated that the net profit in the fourth quarter of 2021 will be 250 million yuan to 400 million yuan, an increase of 42.86% to 128.57% month on month.
Comments:
PPI continues to be transmitted to CPI, and the price difference of products with terminal rigid demand is expected to widen. Sucralose has a strong demand under the demand side sugar substitute trend. December is the off-season for sucralose demand, while exports still achieved double-digit growth month on month, doubling year-on-year growth; On the supply side, after a continuous price war, there are not many enterprises that can stably produce sucralose, and the competition pattern is good; On the cost side, with the orderly dual control of energy consumption, the price of bulk commodities may decline, and the price difference of sucralose is expected to widen. For pesticides, grain prices on the demand side are running at a high level, stimulating farmers to increase investment in the next year, thus stimulating pesticide demand; On the supply side, some pesticide enterprises are priced as long orders, raw materials and sea freight rise, and profits are damaged. There may be room for price increase in the future; On the cost side, with the orderly dual control of energy consumption, the price of bulk commodities may decline, and the price difference of pesticides is expected to widen. The performance improvement of preparation link has appeared, and the profits of partial preparation pesticide enterprises such as andoma and Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) have improved significantly in the fourth quarter. In the context of repeated epidemics and rising geopolitical risks, we continue to be optimistic about the rigid demand and PPI to CPI transmission industries, such as sweeteners and pesticides.
Product prices rose and fell with each other: the products with the highest price increase include butadiene (22.81%), sole stock solution (shoe midsole, East China) (17.50%), isobutyraldehyde (15.09%), American henryhub Futures (13.47%) and styrene (7.94%).
The products with the highest price decline include dichloromethane (- 6.06%), propylene (Shandong) (- 5.39%), cypermethrin (- 5.10%), phosphorus oxychloride (- 4.76%) and phosphorus trichloride (- 4.76%).
Risk warning events: macroeconomic downside risk, crude oil price fluctuation risk and enterprise operation risk.
