Recently, the share price of steel has fallen sharply and the price of steel has risen, which deviates significantly. The decline of stock price is related to the systematic correction of the market and the pre loss of some steel enterprises in the fourth quarter; On the one hand, the rise in steel prices is driven by costs. On the other hand, the expectation of steady growth makes the market optimistic in the off-season. There have been cases of deviation of steel price and stock price in history. The most recent time was in the second half of 2021. The steel stock price fell sharply after peaking in mid September, while the steel price continued to rise to October 11, a month away. There was also a large-scale deviation in history – in the first half of 2008, the stock price plummeted and the steel price soared, and the deviation lasted for half a year. From the perspective of historical cases, the stock price is leading, but the duration of deviation can be long or short. This round of deviation is likely to continue until the spring, because this period of time is a low season, stable growth can not be falsified, steel prices may be strong driven by funds and expectations, and face uncertainty after the peak season. Iron ore prices have rebounded sharply recently. On the one hand, they benefit from stable growth and the expectation of steel enterprises to resume production after the Winter Olympic Games. On the other hand, the intensification of the epidemic in Australia makes the expectation of tightening supply. In terms of policy, we reiterated the pressure on iron ore, but iron ore is different from coal. The coal supply is controlled in China, while iron ore is overseas. The policy statement may suppress the mood, and the price will ultimately be determined by supply and demand. It is suggested to look for opportunities from the growing new material industry and pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , etc.
Risk tip: the sharp decline of macro economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase.
