Core view
All sectors in the post real estate cycle fell this week, among which furniture, black household appliances and service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) sectors performed relatively strongly. In the last week before the Spring Festival, the CSI 300 index fell by 4.51%. Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle, the furniture, black household appliances and service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) sectors fell by 4.44%, 2.97% and 2.96% respectively, outperforming the market by 0.07pct, 1.54pct and 1.55pct respectively. The sectors of small household appliances, kitchen appliances, lighting electricians and white household appliances fell by 6.99%, 6.95%, 6.85% and 5.15% respectively, outperforming the market by 2.48pct, 2.44pct and 2.44pct respectively 2.34pct、0.64pct。
Domestic sales: in December 2021, the opening volume of hardbound houses turned to a year-on-year negative growth; In January 2022, the sales of Amoy series, a key brand of integrated stoves and small kitchen appliances, continued to grow negatively year-on-year. (1) Upstream raw material prices: compared with two weeks ago, TDI prices rose last week, MDI prices remained unchanged, copper prices fell, aluminum prices rose, the price trend of plastic raw materials was differentiated, and the market price has not been updated this week. (2) China's real estate demand: in December 2021, the year-on-year negative growth rate of new house sales area expanded, and the year-on-year positive growth rate of completed area narrowed; In December, the transaction volume of second-hand houses continued to decline year-on-year. According to the real estate data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the national residential sales area decreased by 19.4% year-on-year in December 2021 and 10.2% year-on-year in December 2019; In terms of second-hand housing transactions, in December 2021, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in China's top 10 cities was 45700 units, a year-on-year decrease of 39%; In terms of the opening of hardbound houses, according to the statistics of ovicloud, the opening volume of hardbound houses in China was about 299000 units in December 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%. (3) Retail tracking: in December 2021, the retail sales of furniture decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, and the retail sales of household appliances decreased by 6% year-on-year. In terms of breakdown categories, according to the monitoring data of ovicloud, the online retail sales of integrated stove and sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) in December 2021 increased by 0.8% and 20.5% respectively year-on-year, the online sales of kitchen large and small household appliances decreased by 16.4% and 24% respectively year-on-year, and the online retail sales of cleaning appliances increased by 11.9% year-on-year. According to the statistics of Amoy data platform, in January 2022, the sales of key brands of integrated stoves and small kitchen appliances continued to grow negatively year-on-year, and the sales of key brands of clean appliances fluctuated year-on-year.
Export: in December, the export volume of furniture industry turned to negative growth year-on-year, and the export volume of home appliance industry maintained positive growth year-on-year. (1) Overseas real estate demand: in December 2021, the sales of existing homes in the United States decreased by 7% year-on-year, with continuous negative growth; In December, the number of new construction projects increased by 2% year-on-year and continued to grow positively. (2) Export performance of sectors and sub categories: in December 2021, the export volume of furniture industry turned to a year-on-year negative growth (- 4%), and the export volume of home appliance industry maintained a year-on-year positive growth (18%). According to the data disclosed by the General Administration of customs, in December 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of exports of electric ovens, toasters, electric frying pans and other categories increased significantly compared with the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate of exports of range hoods and other categories decreased.
Investment proposal and investment object
The demand for domestic sales and exports in the post real estate cycle continues to grow rapidly. It is suggested to pay attention to the customized home leaders Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (002572, buy), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (603833, overweight), Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) (300616, overweight), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (603801, not rated), and software furniture leaders Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (603816, not rated); Benefiting from the high growth of emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances, it is suggested to pay attention to China's floor sweepers Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leaders Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486, overweight), Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) (688169, buy), small household appliances leaders with continuous category innovation Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) (002242, overweight), Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) (002705, buy), Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) (002959, overweight), Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) (300824, overweight).
Risk tips
The risk of real estate sales and completion falling short of expectations, and the risk of sharp rise in the price of raw materials
