Industry tracking (2022.1.22-2022.1.28)
According to the position data of 2021q4 public funds, the total market value of positions in real estate stocks rose from + 24.0% to 109.84 billion yuan month on month, and the proportion of market value of positions in the market value of stock investment rose from + 0.17pct to 1.56% month on month. The proportion of positions rose slightly for two consecutive quarters; The market value of real estate stocks was 0.54pct lower than that of standard industry allocation, and the range of low allocation also narrowed for two consecutive quarters. The allocation proportion of the real estate sector ranked fifth among all industry categories, with a month on month increase of 1. With the gradual emergence of the end of the 2021q3 policy, the allocation proportion of public funds to real estate stocks rebounded slightly, but it is still at a historical low.
From the perspective of position structure, the top five stocks with position market value are Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) . 2021q4 public funds prefer stable operation, benefiting from industry leaders with loose credit orientation and high-quality local state-owned enterprises. From the perspective of northbound capital, the market value of land stock link real estate shares in 2021q4 has fallen for three consecutive quarters, and the proportion of market value of positions has fallen for five consecutive quarters. The top five stocks of market value of positions are Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) and OCT a, which are basically the same as the position structure of public funds and also prefer industry leaders.
Under the pressure of high base, new houses and second-hand transactions were weak year-on-year
The new housing market traded 5.47 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 30.10%, a decrease of 14.50 PCT compared with the previous month; The accumulated inventory was 172.46 million square meters, the second-line decontamination accelerated, the first-line decontamination slowed down, and the speed of the third line and below was the same. The second-hand housing market traded 1.21 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 36.45%, down 4.29 PCT compared with the previous month. The land market traded 9.21 million square meters this week, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 48.30%; The total turnover was 8.7 billion yuan, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 38.11%; The national average premium rate was + 0.17%, rolling for 12 weeks, year-on-year -10.81pct.
This week, Shenwan real estate index was – 4.20%, down 6.41pct from last week, ranking 10 / 31 higher, leading the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.31pct. In terms of H shares, the wind Hong Kong real estate index this week was – 3.62%, down 9.63pct from last week, ranking 4 / 11 higher, leading the Hang Seng Index by 2.05pct; The kroney leading index of real estate stocks was – 6.97%, down 15.82pct from last week.
Grasp the beta of loose policy structure and the alpha of M & A
Investment suggestion: the industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support. With the increasing pressure on fundamentals and credit in the first quarter, the demand regulation policy needs to be further relaxed; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Policy support and actual M & A are expected to continue to land. Suggestions: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A, Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Xuhui holding group; 3) High quality property management: Country Garden service, xinchengyue service, Greentown service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The downward cycle of industry sales begins; Administrative regulation remained high-pressure, and the pilot strength of real estate tax exceeded expectations
