Petrochemical Industry: the supply and demand pattern of crude oil was good in 22 years. It is suggested to pay attention to the petrochemical, chemical fiber, C3 and coal chemical sectors. 1) In the past 22 years, the pattern of crude oil supply and demand is good, and the oil price is expected to remain high, while the petrochemical sector is basically synchronized with the trend of oil price, and the upstream oil and gas, oil service and private large refining and chemical companies are expected to fully benefit. 2) The upstream capacity of the chemical fiber industry is growing rapidly, and the profit is expected to transfer to the downstream polyester end. The oil price is expected to remain high in 22 years, and the cost side support of polyester filament is strong; After the holiday, we will speed up the resumption of work and production, and the demand is expected to pick up; If the overseas epidemic situation worsens again, China’s supply is expected to make up for the overseas supply and demand gap. 3) PDH raw material propane is relatively dependent on imports, the growth rate of new propane supply decreases, and the price may continue to rise, which will squeeze PDH profits. Superimposed with more new PDH production capacity in the future, the trend of PDH price difference may be weak, but its characteristics of low energy consumption and low carbon emission are still in line with China’s “double carbon” development strategy. The supply pattern of acrylic acid industry is stable and the industry concentration is high. At present, the device is repaired in rotation, and the spot supply in the market is relatively tight; The price of raw propylene decreased slightly and the cost side support was weak; Downstream acrylate enterprises still focus on purchasing on demand. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes in the market after the festival. 4) The cost side pressure of coal chemical industry is expected to weaken. At present, the early replenishment effect of coke steel enterprises in the downstream of coking coal market is obvious, the inventory has risen to a medium high level, and the market demand is weakened; Superimposed with the expectation of limited production of downstream enterprises in the Winter Olympic Games, the price of coking coal may decline. Downstream demand picks up after the festival, and propylene and ethylene prices are expected to rise.
Basic chemical industry: the spring farming season is coming, which is favorable for the improvement of the demand for compound fertilizer, and the supply of new energy materials is tight in the medium and short term. As the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, we sorted out the price trend of compound fertilizer, new energy materials and some key commodities, and reviewed and prospected the promising industries of compound fertilizer and new energy materials after the festival, in order to provide some reference for the investment direction after the festival. For the compound fertilizer industry, considering the advent of the peak season of spring farming demand, the current high level of direct raw material prices and more upstream raw material prices of compound fertilizer, and the gradual rise of compound fertilizer price index, the leading enterprises of compound fertilizer are expected to fully release their production capacity with their huge production capacity, complete raw material production capacity and high raw material self-sufficiency rate, Effectively control production costs and obtain better benefits. For new energy materials, the new energy sector has continued to callback since the end of 2021, but the prices of relevant materials continue to rise or remain high, which is good for the leader of new energy materials. In addition, driven by the expected high growth rate of downstream new energy vehicle sales, many Chinese enterprises plan to have large-scale production capacity of iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate. However, we believe that the supply of new energy materials will still be tight in the medium and short term, which will significantly benefit the production enterprises with first mover and cost advantages.
Weekly rise and fall of sectors: in the past five trading days, most of the sectors in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a downward trend. This week, the Shanghai stock index fell by 4.57%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 5.00%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 4.51% and the gem index fell by 4.14%. CITIC basic chemical fell 3.4%, ranking seventh in all sectors.
Investment suggestions: (1) the upstream oil and gas sector is suggested to pay attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , CNOOC and Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) and other oil service targets. (2) White horse, the leader of undervalued chemical industry: it is suggested to pay attention to ① three chemical white horses: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) ; ② Private refining and chemical fiber sector: Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ; ③ Light hydrocarbon cracking sector: Satellite chemistry, Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; ④ Coal to olefin: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) . (3) New materials: it is suggested to pay attention to ① semiconductor materials: Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) , Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) , Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) , Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp.Ltd(600378) , Jiangsu Nata Opto-Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300346) , Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) , Tianjin Jiuri New Materials Co.Ltd(688199) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) ; ② Wind power materials: carbon fiber, polyether amine, matrix resin, interlayer materials, structural adhesive and other related enterprises; ③ Lithium battery materials: electrolyte, lithium battery diaphragm, phosphorus chemical industry, fluorine chemical industry and other related enterprises; ④ Photovoltaic materials: upstream silicon materials, EVA, soda ash and other related enterprises; ⑤ OLED industry chain: Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Xi’An Manareco New Materials Co.Ltd(688550) , Jilin Oled Material Tech Co.Ltd(688378) , Puyang Huicheng Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300481) . (4) Traditional cycle sector: it is suggested to pay attention to relevant targets in the fields of pesticides, coal chemical industry, urea, dyes, vitamins, chlor alkali, etc.
Risk analysis: the risk of rapid decline and high oil price; Downstream demand is less than expected risk.
