According to the sales volume data of new forces released on 2022 / 1, Xiaopeng and ideal continued to break 10000: 1) the sales volume of Xiaopeng’s cars increased by 115% year-on-year to 13000 on 2022 / 1; Among them, P7 increased by 81% year-on-year to 6707 vehicles (accounting for about 52%), G3 / g3i decreased by 5% year-on-year to 2186 vehicles (accounting for about 17%), and P5 increased by 15% month on month to 4029 vehicles (accounting for about 31%, which will be delivered in 2021 / 9). 2) 2022 / 1 ideal car sales increased by 128% year-on-year to 12000 vehicles. 3) On January 2022, the sales volume of Weilai automobile increased by 34% year-on-year to 9652 vehicles; Among them, ES6 increased by 93% year-on-year to 5247 vehicles (accounting for about 54%), ec6 increased by 1% year-on-year to 2874 vehicles (accounting for about 30%), and es8 decreased by 8% year-on-year to 1531 vehicles (accounting for about 16%).
2022 / 1 is generally in line with expectations, and we pay attention to the climbing rhythm of 2022 / 3-4: we judge that 1) the delivery volume of Xiaopeng / ideal / Weilai on 2022 / 1 decreased by 19% / 13% / 8% month on month respectively, reflecting the seasonal fluctuation characteristics of the car market; Among them, the delivery volume of 2022 / 1 is mainly based on digesting the backlog of retained orders in the early stage and recent new orders, which is affected by the price adjustment corresponding to the decline of subsidies (ideally, Xiaopeng does not enjoy subsidies, guaranteed price within a limited time), and the delivery cycle corresponding to supply chain / logistics. The overall performance is in line with expectations. 2) At present, the delivery cycle of Xiaopeng / ideal / Weilai is about 8 weeks (about 10 + weeks for Xiaopeng P5, G3 / g3i and P7); We expect that by the end of January, new forces may still have about 1m + retained orders, superimposed with the Spring Festival holiday in 2022 / 2 and other factors. It is expected that the climbing rhythm of new orders and delivery volume in 2022 / 3-4 may be the main consideration for the pricing and equity adjustment of models throughout the year.
We are optimistic about the continuous release of industry demand, and the fluctuation of raw material prices, supply chain and production capacity may be the key: we are optimistic about the prospect of continuous release of electric vehicle 2C demand. At present, the climbing of sales volume is still the core factor determining brand strength and valuation. According to our judgment, 1) the shortage of supply chains such as chips is gradually alleviated, and it is expected that production capacity, supply chain and logistics are still the key to the climbing of sales (2022e new forces have corresponding production expansion plans for existing factories). 2) The decline in subsidies and the rise in the price of raw materials such as lithium carbonate may lead to an increase in the price of pure electric vehicles. It is expected that vehicle enterprises may hedge the pressure of increasing battery end costs by increasing secondary supply, and it is expected that there is a possibility of price increase / increase in equity range; Among them, high-end pure electric vehicles are affected or relatively controllable by price adjustment. 3) Continue to be optimistic about the rise of industry penetration and the steady climbing prospect of new forces’ delivery. It is estimated that the total delivery of new forces in 2022e is about 580000-600000; Based on the launch planning and climbing rhythm of 2022e new models, the total delivery volume of 2022e new forces is expected to be Xiaopeng, ideal and Weilai respectively.
Sales volume is the core, and strategy / concept / talent / organizational structure is the decisive factor: we judge that intelligent electrification is a long-term process, and strategy, concept, talent and organizational structure are the decisive factors leading to the difference of technology driven product force / sales volume scale. We continue to be optimistic about the steady rise in the penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles. It is estimated that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger vehicles in 2022e is about 5-5.5 million. In terms of traditional automobile enterprises, it is recommended to pay attention to Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Geely Automobile, and it is recommended to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) ; In terms of Tesla and new forces, recommend Tesla and pay attention to ideals for a long time.
Risk analysis: the reduction of chip shortage is less than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; The expansion of production is less than expected; Industry demand is less than expected; The launch of new models is less than expected; The sales volume and gross profit margin of new generation / new model are not climbing as expected; The cost control is not as expected, the epidemic situation is repeated, the market / financial risk, and the dilution risk caused by continuous financing.
