Special topic of this week: 21q4 light industry, textile and clothing fund position analysis
Light industry sector: the proportion of fund light industry allocation fell. As of 2021q4, the allocation ratio of the fund to the light industry sector was 0.64%, down 0.17pct month on month and 0.57pct year-on-year. Q4 Light Industry Fund ranked 25th among 28 industries in terms of allocation proportion. The proportion of fund positions in the light industry sector decreased slightly, and the positions are still in the low allocation range. Position analysis of individual fund stocks: the concentration of leading shareholding increased, and the number of funds in the household sector increased. Fund positions in the light industry are concentrated in leading enterprises in the sector. Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) , DEA shares and Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) are among the top five. Among the top ten companies with positions, the number of holding funds of Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , DEA shares and Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) increased the most, with an increase of 60, 40 and 20 respectively compared with the end of Q3. DEA shares is a newly listed company of 21q4, and only the number of holding funds of Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) and Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Co.Ltd(002585) decreased. The change of the total market value of heavy positions of 2021q4 funds is obvious. Position analysis of land stock link: Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) account for a high proportion, and foreign positions change respectively.
Textile and clothing sector: Q4 fund A-share textile and clothing allocation continued to decline. As of 2021q4, the allocation ratio of the fund to the A-share textile and clothing sector was 0.32%, a month on month decrease of 0.014pct and a year-on-year increase of 0.07pct. Q4 textile and clothing industry fund ranked 26th among 28 industries in terms of allocation proportion, and its position was in the low allocation range. The over allocation proportion of the sector was -0.36pct, a month on month decrease of 0.28pct and a year-on-year decrease of 0.06pct. In terms of secondary industries, the allocation ratio of textile manufacturing / clothing and home textile was 0.03% / 0.29% respectively. The position of textile manufacturing fund increased and the position of clothing and home textile decreased. Position analysis of individual fund stocks: the number and amount of funds holding positions of leading individual stocks decreased. Textile and clothing industry fund positions are concentrated in some stocks, with Li Ning, Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) and Anta Sports ranked in the top three. As of 2021q4, Li Ning, Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) and Anta sports have led the textile and clothing industry with 39, 35 and 31 shareholding funds respectively, but the number of shareholding funds has decreased by 22, 6 and 34 respectively compared with the end of Q3. The number of funds held by the top ten companies in the sector decreased slightly as a whole. From the perspective of the total market value of heavy holdings of Q4 fund, Li Ning (5.94 billion), Anta sports (3.31 billion) and Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) (2.77 billion) ranked in the top three, of which Li Ning and Anta decreased by 1.48 billion and 5.83 billion respectively compared with Q3. Position analysis of land stock connect: the proportion of Q4 foreign holdings Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) , Dazzle Fashion Co.Ltd(603587) and Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) in the free circulation market value was 27.1%, 11.5% and 7.7% respectively, an increase of 17.3pcts, 5.7pcts and 7.7pcts respectively compared with the end of 20. Referring to the historical trend, the allocation of individual stocks in the A-share textile and clothing sector fluctuated slightly. Among them, the leader of children’s clothing segment Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) maintained the industry leadership throughout the year despite a slight decline in Q4.
This week’s view.
Household sector: in December, the national residential sales area decreased by 19.4% year-on-year to 174 million square meters, down 10.2% from the same period in 2019, and the monthly sales data continued to decline; In December, the completed residential area in China was 234 million square meters, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year and 3.1% over the same period in 2019. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the repair opportunities of the home sector. From the industry level, the central bank’s interest rate cut + monetary policy actively releases the easing signal. With the gradual release of real estate credit risk and the improvement of superimposed financing, the valuation of the home sector is expected to be repaired. It is suggested to give priority to companies with strong ability to bring high growth through channel reform and category expansion under the current industry background.
Paper sector: the recent price of pulp remains high and volatile due to the short-term disturbance of the supply side, but the downstream demand is weak due to the impact of the pre Festival paper mill maintenance plan. (1) Cultural paper: the price of cultural paper rose slightly this week, and large-scale paper mills successively issued price increase letters. It is planned to raise 200 yuan / ton in February. The pulp price fluctuated and sorted out, and the cost support is still available. However, the orders of downstream dealers and printing factories are limited, and the demand side support is general. Delivery is limited and light delivery is approaching. (2) Box tile paper: the price of box tile paper is stable, the holiday is approaching, the shutdown and maintenance plan of the paper factory is released, and the enthusiasm for price adjustment is not high. Recently, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream packaging plants has weakened and the demand is general. The upstream raw material waste paper market weakened and the cost support was limited.
Textile manufacturing sector: in the context of repeated outbreaks, the textile and garment industry index fell by 4.46% this week, of which textile manufacturing, clothing home textiles and jewelry rose and fell by – 3.98%, – 4.92% and – 3.93% respectively. (1) Textile manufacturing: China’s local epidemic situation has been repeated, and the consumption willingness has decreased under the background of economic slowdown. We believe that the textile manufacturing sector dominated by export manufacturing may have structural opportunities, and its overall prosperity is better than brand clothing dominated by domestic demand. Considering that the overall expectation of the sector is relatively pessimistic + the fund is in a state of low position + the current valuation of the sector is low and has cost performance, it is a better time point for the overall market or the left layout of the leading industry segments. Under the repeated impact of the epidemic, the performance of various brands is weak, while the capacity of OEM enterprises is expected to accelerate the release under the normalization of the epidemic, and the overall performance is better than that of brands; (2) Sports shoes and clothing: under the repeated exogenous impact of the epidemic, the valuation of brand clothing continued to fall. We believe that with the Winter Olympics approaching, it is expected to benefit high-end sports shoes and clothing enterprises, and the market share and penetration of domestic brands are expected to continue to improve. At present, the layout on the left can be appropriate. The overall prosperity of the follow-up sector needs to wait for the epidemic and the landing of economic catalysis; (3) Down jacket: from the online data, the market share of online sales categories of down jacket in 2021q4 has increased significantly, the concentration of head brands has increased, and the cold winter is expected to boost down jacket sales; (4) Outdoor sports: the growth of overseas outdoor sports demand has led to the increase of China’s corresponding product exports. The performance of professional outdoor sports equipment and product enterprises in China has been outstanding since 2020.
Investment advice
Continue to recommend the leading enterprise Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) of high growth paper-based materials in the era of replacing plastic with paper. Based on the track of high prosperity and large space, the leapfrog improvement of production capacity opens the bottleneck. At present, the company’s valuation is close to the historical low, with high safety margin and large repair space. It is recommended that wood pulp is the leading papermaking industry Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) . The company is diversified and takes the lead in cost control. The current valuation has been at the bottom of history. It is recommended to configure it on the left; In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to the box board leading Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) with overseas production line layout and national waste channel construction.
The key recommendation is Shantou Wanshun New Material Group Co.Ltd(300057) . Lithium battery aluminum foil is put into operation in the high boom window period and is still in a valuation depression in the industrial chain. The current market has poor expectations, and the bottom is firmly recommended.
It is suggested to pay attention to the customized home leader Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , the continuous high growth of decoration income, and continue to strengthen the front-end traffic entrance under the background of the differentiation of home consumption traffic. At present, the business model of new channels is gradually smoothed out. Software home continues to recommend Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Minhua holdings. Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) the channel reform has gradually realized the performance. Based on the original strong sofa channel, new categories such as mattresses and customized home began to increase; Minhua holdings is in the stage of continuously opening stores at a high speed in the domestic sales channel, and its market share and performance are in a strong upward channel. There is still much room for improvement in the medium and long-term functional sofa penetration.
Risk tips
The production expansion progress is less than expected; The rise of labor costs exceeded expectations; Sales of major customers fell.
