Review of retail market:
In the past week (five trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by – 4.57% and – 5.00% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index rose by – 4.56%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. Since 2022 (19 trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by – 7.65% and – 10.29% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index has increased by – 6.94%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index.
In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by – 4.56%, ranking 13th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. In the past week, one of the 29 CITIC first-class industries rose. The top three industries were catering and tourism, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and transportation, with an increase of 0.07%, – 2.02% and – 2.25% respectively. Since 2022, the trade and retail industry has increased by – 6.94%, ranking 13th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2022, one of the 29 CITIC first-class industries has risen. The top three industries are banking, real estate and transportation, with an increase of 2.47%, – 2.02% and – 2.55% respectively.
In the past week, among the sub industries of the retail sector, the top three sub industries were department stores, 3C chain of household appliances and professional markets, with increases of – 2.77%, – 3.46% and – 4.38% respectively. Since 2022, among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries are professional markets, department stores and home appliance 3C chains, with increases of – 4.79%, – 4.82% and – 5.10% respectively.
In the past week, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 11 companies rose, 1 company was flat and 81 companies fell. In the past week, the top three companies were Ningbo Zhongbai Co.Ltd(600857) , Changsha Tongcheng Holdings Co.Ltd(000419) and Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , with an increase of 12.57%, 9.73% and 8.53% respectively. Since 2022, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 21 companies have increased, one company has remained unchanged and 71 companies have decreased. Since 2022, the top three companies with growth rates are Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Changsha Tongcheng Holdings Co.Ltd(000419) and Ningbo Zhongbai Co.Ltd(600857) , with growth rates of 148.34%, 23.14% and 16.60% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
The recent focus of the retail sector is the Spring Festival sales data. On the whole, although there are adverse factors of the epidemic, the prosperity of the industry may be alleviated with a series of policies issued by the government. On the night of the last trading day of the year of the ox, many retail enterprises issued pre loss announcements for 2021. Among them, the loss of Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) is within the expectation, and the performance pre loss degree of leading supermarket enterprises Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) and Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) slightly exceeds the market expectation, especially Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) is in a leading position in Jiaodong, and its performance loss is unexpected in the market. At present, the CPI index is stable, and supermarkets will still recover weakly in the short term due to the impact of community group buying. Therefore, we maintain the original view that the gold jewelry industry will have better opportunities in 2022. Meanwhile, Baijiu channel business Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) will continue to benefit from the high spirits of high-end Baijiu, and investors should be concerned about it. Suggestions: Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , JD.
Risk analysis:
The growth rate of residents’ consumption demand did not meet expectations, the post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
