This week’s focus: the market is accelerating near the Spring Festival, and the pig price is not booming in the peak season
[pigs] the average price of pigs this week was 13.78 yuan / kg, down 4.72% on a weekly basis. The average wholesale price of pork was 21.84 yuan / kg, up 0.15% on a weekly basis. Large slaughterhouses began to stop slaughtering on January 29. The preparation time is only about 3 days, and the operating rate may be increased or reduced. In terms of feed, the price of compound feed for fattening pigs this week is 3.63 yuan / kg, and the weekly ring ratio remains unchanged. It is expected that the feed price will still rise slightly next week. As the Spring Festival approaches, the breeding end speeds up the pace of slaughter. Due to the impact of the epidemic in some areas, the supply of pigs increases, the average weight of slaughter continues to decline slightly month on month, and the price of pigs is not booming in the peak season. At present, the pig price is still in the period of shock and bottom grinding. Pay attention to the range and duration of the second bottom sounding after the festival. At the bottom of the cycle, it is suggested to actively arrange enterprises with both financial stability and growth, focusing on Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) (continuous improvement of operation, company + breeding community + farmer mode to ensure stable growth of production capacity) and Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) (whole industry chain operation, excellent performance in various financial indicators), Secondly, focus on COFCO Jiakang (backed by COFCO group, it has the cost advantage of raw feed grain and the rapid expansion of production capacity).
[seed industry] this month, the decision of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas on Amending the administrative measures for the safety evaluation of agricultural genetically modified organisms and other regulations was officially implemented, and the industrialized application of biological breeding is advancing in an orderly manner under the national scientific supervision. In order to solve the problems of Spodoptera graminearum and grass damage faced in current agricultural production, last year, China carried out industrialization pilot projects for herbicide resistant transgenic soybeans and insect and herbicide resistant transgenic maize that have obtained production and application safety certificates. At present, the progress is relatively good. The weeding effect of transgenic soybeans is more than 95%, which can reduce the weeding cost by 50% and increase the yield by 12%. The control effect of transgenic maize on Spodoptera meadowi can reach 95%, which greatly reduces the cost of pest control. From the perspective of industry, China’s grain market will continue to maintain a tight balance for a long time in the future. The policy level attaches great importance to food security, and the commercialization of genetically modified organisms will be accelerated. It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality seed enterprises ( Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) ) and transgenic technology companies ( Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ) with leading scientific research strength and GM first mover advantage. In the future, they will fully benefit from the double dividends of “cycle” and “growth”, and the market share is expected to be further improved.
[animal health insurance] in January 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of batches of vaccines issued for pigs was from high to low: porcine parvovirus vaccine + 50.0%, porcine circadian vaccine + 12.66%, foot-and-mouth vaccine + 2.86%, classical swine fever vaccine – 26.95% and Porcine Pseudorabies Vaccine – 46.21%. In the short term, the supply and demand pattern of the industry will be improved. Before June 2022, all veterinary drug manufacturers need to complete the transformation and acceptance of the new version of veterinary drug GMP. In the second half of the year, the industry will enter the peak period of elimination of backward production capacity, and the concentration will continue to improve. In addition, the market is expected that the price of pigs will pick up in the second half of the year, and the demand for vaccines and chemical products is expected to be boosted. In the long run, benefiting from the large-scale development of the breeding industry and the improvement of pet penetration, the scale of the animal protection industry will continue to grow. In addition, the research and development progress of non plague vaccine will further promote the development rhythm of the industry. At present, the valuation level of the dynamic insurance industry is at a historical low. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading companies with strong R & D strength and comprehensive product coverage ( Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) ).
Risk warning: the slaughter volume of pigs is lower than expected; Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the price fluctuates greatly; The outbreak exceeded expectations.
