Crude oil rose unabated, and soda ash, phosphorus chemicals, organosilicon, metal silicon and refrigerants fluctuated after falling. On the other hand, semiconductors and new energy materials are highly concerned.
Industry trends:
Among the 101 chemical varieties tracked this week, 43 varieties rose in price, 23 varieties fell in price and 35 varieties remained stable. The top five varieties were trichloroethylene, butadiene, propylene oxide, p-xylene and aniline; The top five varieties of decline were BDO, EDC, dichloromethane, epichlorohydrin and natural rubber.
Crude oil closed at US $1.86/barrel this week, with WTI rising by 1.86%; Brent crude oil closed at US $89.34/barrel, closing up 1.65% this week. The crude oil market was relatively calm to the Fed, OPEC + production was lower than expected, and crude oil prices remained high this week. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting this week confirmed that taper will end in March and raise interest rates successively, which is in line with market expectations. In terms of supply, according to OPEC data, OPEC + Member States achieved only two-thirds of the specified increase last month, and it is expected that there will be no significant increase in short-term crude oil supply. According to us EIA data, as of the week of January 21, the change of US crude oil inventory actually increased by 2377000 barrels, with an expected increase of 1 million barrels. In the future, there may still be some risks in the geopolitics of Russia and Ukraine, and the crude oil supply may continue to be tight. It is expected that the crude oil price will remain high.
The prices of PX and PTA products rose this week, PX (Southeast Asia) closed at US $975 / ton, the closing price remained basically unchanged, and the weekly average price rose by 2.84%; PTA (East China) closed at 7000 yuan / ton, with a weekly closing price increase of 6%, and the weekly average price remained basically unchanged. In terms of PX supply, according to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the operating rate of China’s PX market closed at 68.51% this week. During the week, Fujian united and SINOCHEM Quanzhou units in the market have achieved temperature rise and restart, but no products have been produced. The early shutdown device of East China large factory has also been restarted, and the market supply is basically stable. In terms of PX demand, three sets of 4.5 million T / a PTA units in Fujian were restarted during the week, and PTA demand for PX is expected to continue to rise in the short term. In terms of PTA, the supply and demand side of PTA market maintains the accumulation pattern, the overall trading of the market is relatively light, and most operators wait for a holiday to leave the market. In the future, the price support of crude oil to the polyester industry chain will continue for some time, and the price is expected to continue to rise after the festival.
TDI (East China) closed at 18500 yuan / ton this week, with an average weekly price increase of 2.66%, up 20.52% from the beginning of the year. In terms of supply, Wanhua Fujian TDI unit was restarted, but the supply is still limited. Yantai Juli and Gansu Yinguang units are still in shutdown and maintenance, and the overall supply has not increased significantly. In terms of exports, China’s TDI exports continued to increase. In December 2021, TDI exports closed at 37186.05 tons, up 1.74% month on month and 3.96% year-on-year. TDI exports are mainly from Vietnam, Indonesia and Brazil. With the implementation of RCEP, TDI exports are expected to continue to be boosted, and TDI prices are expected to maintain an upward trend after the festival.
Investment suggestions:
This week’s view
Cyclical industries: crude oil prices continued to rise this week, and downstream petrochemical products such as ethylene, propylene and butadiene generally rose. As of January 28, 2022, Shenwan basic chemical industry index closed at 4476 points, with a weekly decrease of 3.3%; Shenwan petroleum and petrochemical index closed at 2311 points, down 3.1% for the week. Potassium fertilizer, fluorine chemical industry, refrigerant, inorganic salt, other fiber and other sub industries led the increase; Synthetic leather, coating, paint and ink manufacturing, viscose, phosphorus chemical industry, phosphate, spandex and other sub industries led the decline. At present, the valuations of industry leading companies and private refining and chemical leaders have returned to a low level, and the adjustment may be relatively sufficient. The stock price performance may return to the rising trend after the festival.
Growth companies: the average market price of battery grade lithium carbonate exceeded 380000 Yuan / ton, and the price of new energy materials remained high. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the average market price of battery grade lithium carbonate closed at 380400 yuan / ton this week, with a weekly increase of 5.5%. The prices of EVA, diaphragm, NMP, polysilicon and DMC remained high. Since the beginning of the year, the adjustment of individual stocks of new materials has been obvious, but the situation of short supply of semiconductors and new energy materials has not changed, and the stock price performance after the festival is expected to usher in valuation repair.
Stock portfolio: from the perspective of sub industry prosperity, pesticides, infrastructure related chemicals, semiconductor materials and new energy materials are expected to maintain a high prosperity. From the perspective of valuation, after full adjustment, the valuation of private refining, industry leaders, new materials and other related chemical enterprises has returned to a low level again. In the medium and long term, with the sustainability of profits exceeding expectations, high-quality chemical assets are expected to usher in value revaluation. Recommended stocks: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Zhejiang Huangma Technology Co.Ltd(603181) , Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Lianhe Chemical Technology Co.Ltd(002250) , Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) , Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) etc.
February gold shares: Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655)
Risk tips
1) large fluctuations in oil prices caused by changes in geopolitical factors; 2) The global epidemic situation has changed.
