The tiktok market is continuing to decline. According to Taobao data, in January 2022, the overall sales of Taobao platform skin care / make-up were 8.79 billion yuan / 4.87 billion yuan respectively, a decrease of 32% / 21% respectively compared with the same period last year. In January 2022, the overall market of the cosmetic market continued to decline in December 2021, and the main reasons are: 1) the rapid rise of the voice tiktok leads to the diversion. 2021 tiktok tiktok tiktok’s rapid rise year, according to “2021 tiktok electricity supplier of domestic development annual report” shows that in 2021, the sales volume of vibrant Chinese brands increased by 667%, and December 2021, the voice business independent APP on-line; 2) Super head live cooling. Since the Weiya incident in December 2021, the popularity of head anchor has decreased. Although the brand has increased the construction of self anchor and the investment of waist anchor, it is expected that some brands will still be affected to varying degrees in the short term; 3) Base reason. The epidemic makes the data performance in January 2020 poor, while the recovery situation in January 2021 is relatively bright. The data of beauty and skin care in January 2022 achieved a three-year compound growth rate of – 0.4% compared with the same period in 2019 (before the epidemic), which was basically flat.
Tmall flagship store channel: international brands have declined, and Chinese brands have differentiated. In terms of Chinese brands, 1) Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) : the main brand Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) / sub brand Caitang increased by 14.5% / 3.9% respectively year-on-year; 2) Winona increased by 0.5% year-on-year; 3) Dr. Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) has increased 50% over the previous year, of which the top five products are probiotic milk skin care set / Centella asiatica late night facial mask / Jie Yan honey / anti gravity fermented water emulsion / lead essence fluid, which accounts for 23%/18%/18%/9%/7% of the month’s sales volume. 4) Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) its runbaiyan / kwadi / mibel / BM has declined to a certain extent, which is expected to be affected by the anchor to a certain extent; 5) Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) baicaoji / Yuze decreased by about – 20% / – 50% year-on-year, but if you look at the three-year CAGR from January 2019 to January 2022, it will increase by 1.6% / 50% year-on-year respectively; 6) MARUMI fell by about 20% year-on-year. In terms of international brands, Estee Lauder / L’Oreal / P & G / Shiseido fell by – 5.7% / – 12.6% / – 13.5% / – 35.2% year-on-year respectively, showing a decline of different ranges.
Channel of voice business channel: the importance is increasing day by day, different brand live strategy tiktok. The beauty brands are accelerating the layout of the tiktok business, according to the January 2022 cicada mom data: 1) Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) main brand GMV reaches 48 million 200 thousand yuan, of which 79% of the self broadcast + small shops account for 79%. 2) Han Shu was 39.8 million yuan, with self broadcasting accounting for 72%; 3) Winona is 38.24 million yuan, and self broadcasting accounts for 48%; 4) The gmv2412 / 789 / 5.93 million yuan of Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) kwadi / runbaiyan / mibel respectively, of which the proportion of kwadi talent broadcasting is relatively high, the proportion of runbaiyan small store broadcasting is relatively high, and the live broadcasting strategy is differentiated; 4) In terms of other brands, MARUMI / Yilian / Dr. Yier achieved Gmv 1679 / 1576 / 12540000 yuan respectively, which also performed well.
Key recommended stocks: the cosmetics market has a broad space, and the stricter supervision makes the degree of industry standardization continue to improve. With the rise of traffic cost, the intensification of the internal volume of the industry and the improvement of consumers’ awareness of scientific skin care, brands can better attract consumers through strong product power. At present, some domestic brands have gradually verified their product power, marketing power, organization power and even brand power. We are optimistic about the future development prospect of cosmetics industry and excellent domestic brands. Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) and Syoung Group Co.Ltd(300740) are recommended. Maintain a “recommended” rating for the cosmetics industry.
Risk tip: the price reduction of overseas famous brands is higher than expected; Repeated epidemics lead to slow recovery of consumption intention; The impact of medical beauty on the cosmetics industry exceeded expectations; Overseas big brands accelerate their entry into China and intensify competition; Major marketing events occur; Focus on the company’s performance less than expected.
