Industrial metals: as the Spring Festival approaches, the trading in the metal market turns light, but the pressure from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates makes the metal shake and consolidate as a whole. Metals with good fundamentals perform more tenaciously. Although there is a short-term correction, low inventory and steady demand growth still give the market strong confidence to maintain after the festival. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) .
Copper: the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates increased, and the copper price fluctuated at a high level
SHFE copper closed at 70290 yuan / ton, down 1.4% from last week. During the week, the Fed meeting as scheduled described a relatively clear interpretation path for the market to increase interest rates and shrink the table, and hawkish information continued to exert pressure on copper prices. Basically, the global dominant inventory is only 210000 tons, which is at a historical low. Low inventory may play a supporting role in copper prices.
Aluminum: the inventory before the festival is lower than expected, and the aluminum price is strong
SHFE aluminum closed at 21950 yuan / ton, up 2.43% from last week. Recently, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has deteriorated significantly, causing the market to worry about energy. The production resumption progress of overseas smelters may be less than expected, and the market’s concern about overseas electrolytic aluminum supply has increased. Basically, according to SMM statistics, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum during the week was 726000 tons, which was the same as that of last Thursday. During the Spring Festival, the supply side of Yunnan and Shanxi electrolytic aluminum increased production, and the demand weakened with the Spring Festival. Electrolytic aluminum will start seasonal accumulation, but the overall electrolytic aluminum inventory scale is expected to be weaker than that in previous years, and the inventory peak after the festival may be less than 1.2 million tons.
Tin: the activity of market transactions decreased, and the price of tin fluctuated weakly
SHFE tin closed at 329600 yuan / ton, down 1.3% from last week. SHFE tin price fluctuates greatly due to the departure of funds to avoid holiday risk. Basically, Yunnan and Jiangxi smelters on Baichuan’s supply side may reduce their operating rates, while Indonesia, the world’s second-largest tin producer, will delay the issuance of tin export licenses, raising concerns that imports may be less than expected. On the demand side, due to the weakening of the holiday, we are concerned about the resumption of work after the solder industry Festival.
Zinc: China’s accumulated reserves before the festival were slightly higher than expected, and strong overseas consumption may support zinc prices
SHFE zinc closed at 329600 yuan / ton, down 1.3% from last week. This week, affected by the Ukrainian Russian crisis and the Fed’s interest rate hike, the overall macro sentiment was negative for metals, but the zinc fundamentals were relatively strong. According to SMM, European consumption remained rising, making it difficult for LME inventory to accumulate on a large scale. Due to the weakening of consumption, China’s social inventory increased by 30000 tons month on month, slightly higher than the same period in history, and it is still optimistic about the removal of zinc by consumption after the festival.
Energy metals: the delivery of Tesla 4680 battery may further drive the prosperity of nickel lithium sector, and the energy storage sector continues to receive attention or policy support. It is suggested to pay attention to: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) .
Lithium: the downstream demand is strong and the market is bullish after the festival
The average price of spodumene (SC6) was US $2530 / ton, unchanged from last week; The average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 364000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 4.3%. At present, the fundamentals are still tight. Within the week, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) announced to cooperate with Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) to set up joint-venture smelters respectively. The downstream demand is strong. Enterprises that bind leading battery factories and have resource advantages may continue to enjoy the dividend of increasing both volume and price.
Cobalt: game between bottom inventory and weakening demand
The trend of metal cobalt and cobalt intermediate products deviated this week. Affected by the logistics in South Africa, the import volume of cobalt intermediate products is limited, the inventory shortage of Chinese smelters is at a low level, and the performance of metal cobalt is weak due to the bearish sentiment of futures, but the inventory of metal cobalt is also at a low level, and the overall price of cobalt remains volatile.
Nickel: Castle Peak high matte nickel shipping impacts nickel price, low inventory or supports high nickel price operation
SHFE nickel closed at 163750 yuan / ton, down 8% from last week, which was mainly hit by the news that Qingshan shipped high matte nickel, and the market’s expectation of tight supply was alleviated. However, considering that LME inventory is still at a historical low of only 95000 tons, and according to SMM research, the downstream inventory is low, and there is still a demand for replenishment after the festival, it is expected that the tension of pure nickel is difficult to be substantially improved, which may support the high price operation in the future.
Precious metals: US GDP growth exceeded expectations, and gold and silver continued to be weak
COMEX gold closed at $1792.3 per ounce this week, down 2.4% from last week. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week to January 15 was 286000, the highest level since October last year. The unexpected rise in the number of initial jobless claims last week may indicate the impact of the surge of Omicron infection cases in winter on the employment situation and the improvement of risk aversion. In addition, the decline of the US dollar index, the correction of US bond yields and the increase of geopolitical risks in Ukraine have led to a strong trend of gold prices this week. The GDP growth of the United States in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations, and the number of unemployment benefits fell for the first time in four weeks. It continued to strengthen the expectation of the Federal Reserve to tighten the currency, and the price of gold and silver was under pressure. However, the market had expected this before. Superimposed on the sharp decline in U.S. durable goods orders in December, the sales data of existing homes fell, and there were still hidden worries about the economic recovery, which gave some support to the price of gold and silver.
Rare earth: the gap between supply and demand continues, and the price continues to rise
This week’s spot transaction was lighter than that in the early stage, but the gap between supply and demand continued. According to Baichuan information, the problem of enterprise raw materials was difficult to solve in the short term, resulting in the decline of manufacturers’ operating rate. After the festival, the downstream Nd-Fe-B resumed procurement or further supported the price to remain high. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , etc.
Risk tips:
Metal prices fluctuated sharply, the demand for new energy fell sharply, and the macro economy fell sharply
