\u3000\u30001. With the catalysis of both supply and demand, the global lithium price has reached a new high. On January 21, 2022, the average market price of lithium carbonate closed at 349000 yuan / ton, a record high. The high price of lithium resources is mainly driven by the synchronization of supply and demand. On the supply side, the closure of mines in Australia and the continuous decline in the inventory level of metal lithium and various lithium salts in China have led to the tightening of the supply of lithium resources. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of January 21, 2022, the inventory of metal lithium factory has decreased to 10 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 96.74%. In terms of demand, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to increase in 2021, and the rapidly rising demand for power batteries pushed up the consumption of lithium salt. According to the data released by China Automobile Association, the cumulative sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in 2021 reached 3.521 million, a year-on-year increase of 157.5%. The large volume of new energy vehicle market has driven the demand for battery materials, and the willingness of lithium salt manufacturers to prepare goods has also increased. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the consumption of lithium carbonate was 279000 tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 44.79%; Lithium hydroxide consumption was 98500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 159.18%. The mismatch between supply and demand still exists, and the lithium price is expected to remain high. In the short term, although many lithium resource companies around the world are accelerating the progress of their production projects, it is expected that most of the new capacity will be released in the second half of 2022, and the rising power of lithium price from the supply side remains in the short term. In the long run, with the continuous promotion of global low-carbon transformation, the market scale of new energy vehicles will continue to expand. Under the background of the continuous prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry in the future, the price of lithium resources is expected to remain high.
\u3000\u30002. In the past week, most of the prices of major non-ferrous metals rose, among which LME tin rose by 7.5% and cathode copper prices fell slightly. In terms of LME tin, as of January 21, 2022, the settlement price of LME tin futures in the international market was reported at US $43900 / ton, up 7.5% on a weekly basis. The large increase of Lunxi market is mainly caused by the shortage of international supply. As of January 21, 2022, LME tin inventory is about 2000 tons, at a historically low level. In terms of cathode copper, as of January 21, 2022, the settlement price of China’s cathode copper futures was reported at 71000 yuan / ton, down 0.9% this week. The decline of cathode copper price is mainly affected by the weak demand in the lower reaches of the Spring Festival.
\u3000\u30003. The high oil price pushed up inflation expectations and strengthened the logic of gold price rise. On January 19, 2022, Brent crude oil closed at $88.44/barrel, up to $89.05/barrel in a single day, and WTI crude oil closed at $86.96/barrel, up to $89.40/barrel in a single day, a new high since 2014. Against the background of the previous high of crude oil prices, global inflation expectations are further heating up, and the price of gold is also rising. As of January 21, 2022, Comex gold futures closed at US $1828.9/oz, up 0.4% on a weekly basis; The futures price of China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) was reported at 378.7 yuan / gram, up 1.3% this week.
\u3000\u30004. Market review. Among the 9 CITIC nonferrous metal sub sectors, 2 rose throughout the week and 7 fell. Among them, the gold sector increased the most, with an increase of 3.2%; Rare earth and magnetic materials sector fell the most, down 8.2%. In terms of individual stocks, the top three weekly increases were Jinzhou Jixiang Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603399) , Inner Mongolia Xingye Mining Co.Ltd(000426) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , with weekly increases of 28.3%, 19.2% and 11.7% respectively; The top three weekly declines were Wanbangde Pharmaceutical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002082) , Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Co.Ltd(601137) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , with weekly declines of 18%, 15.8% and 12.1% respectively.
Investment advice
Under the background of the continuous strong price of lithium resources and high international inflation expectations, the upstream of new energy and gold production enterprises may benefit, such as: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) .
Risk tips
The sales growth of new energy vehicles was lower than expected, the international epidemic was repeated, and the safety and environmental protection policies changed.
