Sub industry core week view
Vehicle: the sales volume in China in January may not be light in the off-season, and the overseas market is expected to basically meet the expectations. China: Recently, the market is worried about the decline of subsidies, the rise of upstream prices and other factors affecting terminal sales, and January is a traditional off-season. According to the sales volume in January announced by some main engine manufacturers during the Spring Festival holiday, Byd Company Limited(002594) and Weilai are basically flat month on month. We expect that the sales volume in China in January may exceed the market expectation; Overseas: the sales volume in Europe is expected to be 110000 in January, yoy + 14%. According to autoinnovate, the sales volume in the United States in January was 53500, yoy + 68%, and the sales volume in Europe and the United States basically met the market expectations. According to our grassroots research, the sales volume planning goal of the head main engine factory in 22 years is ambitious, and the increment of terminal sales may further focus on the head, focusing on Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) supply chain.
Parts: focus on the supply chain of Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) and other leading car companies incrementally, and focus on the track with large marginal increase in penetration and localization rate. We expect that the volume elasticity of the whole vehicle link in 22 years will focus on the head, focusing on Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) supply chain; Intellectualization is an important starting point for OEMs to create product differentiation. From the beginning of 22 years, the penetration rate of intelligent sub circuits is expected to accelerate. The focus is on the direction with large marginal changes in permeability and localization rate. 1) Direction of penetration improvement: intelligent chassis (air suspension, brake by wire, CDC shock absorption, etc.), thermal management heat pump, integrated casting, HEPA and other fields; 2) The promotion direction of localization rate: controller, micro motor, audio, tire, IGBT and other fields.
Battery: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) performance greatly exceeded expectations, and continue to pay attention to the strong bargaining leader in the industrial chain. The annual report of q2750 {outperforms the expectation of the market in the near future, and the performance of q2750} will continue to be paid great attention to; We believe that 4q21 is the node where the performance of the midstream begins to be realized, and 1q22 upstream lithium and other resource products will begin to gradually realize the performance, focusing on the changes in profit distribution caused by the price transmission of the industrial chain. According to the recent grassroots research results, compared with December 21, the industrial production scheduling in January 22 continued to increase by about 5% month on month, and the off-season is not light. It is expected that the new production capacity of the midstream head company will be put into operation gradually from March, and the production scheduling will increase significantly month on month. We judge that the capacity constraint of high energy consumption is still strong; The sector recently pulled back to near pe30x in 22 years and began to enter the strong allocation value range. Focus on the links with strong bargaining power, such as batteries, diaphragms, positive electrodes, structural parts, carbon black, aluminum plastic film and other auxiliary materials with improved localization rate, negative electrodes and PVDF with tight balance between supply and demand.
Important industry events this week
1) look at the sales volume of new forces in January of the 22nd year: leave the old and welcome the new, and the new forces are happy to make a good start; 2) The sales volume of electric vehicles in the United States increased year-on-year in January, and the industry boom continued to rise.
Recommended portfolio of sub industries
See the text on the next page for details.
Risk tips:
The sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; Risk of policy changes.
