There were 19 listed banks in 2027, including Agricultural Bank and express bank. On the whole, the performance growth of listed banks that issued the performance express was better than expected, and the asset quality was stable and upward. The overall performance robustness was better than expected: the revenue side was stable and upward, and 9 of the 19 listed banks that published the performance express had a year-on-year growth rate of more than 10%; The profit side maintained a high growth. The net profit attributable to the parent of 18 listed banks increased by more than 10% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent of 11 listed banks increased by more than 20% year-on-year. The asset quality was generally stable: the non-performing rate decreased month on month in 14 of the 19 listed banks that published the performance express; The provision coverage rate of 14 listed banks increased month on month, and the provision coverage rate of 8 listed banks increased by more than 10 PCT month on month.
Volume: financial pre support. 1. Asset side: in the fourth week of January 2022, the net financing of local bonds and government bonds widened significantly, with a total net financing of 485.3 billion, an increase of 405.4 billion over the same period last year; The net financing of national debt changed from net redemption in the third week to net financing, and the net financing of local debt increased to a large extent. In January 2022, the net financing of local bonds was 670.1 billion, an increase of 310.8 billion over the same period last year; The net financing of treasury bonds was 26.9 billion, 57.2 billion higher than the same period last year. In 2022, the issuance of local bonds responded to the guidance of the state to “move forward”, the amount of financing increased and the pace of issuance accelerated. At present, a total of 21 provinces and cities have disclosed the local bond issuance plan from January to March, with a total disclosure of 1232.4 billion yuan. 2. Liability side: in the fourth week of January, the net financing of interbank certificates of deposit was converted to net repayment, and its Chinese stock banks and rural commercial banks showed net repayment, and urban commercial banks were the main support of the financing amount. It is expected that the industrial deposits will make a good start in January, the state-owned banks and joint-stock banks will continue to make net repayment in the fourth week, and the rural commercial banks will change from positive net financing to net repayment.
Price: liquidity remains reasonably abundant, and interest rates at the negative end of assets are down. 1. Monetary policy: in the second half of January, the open market operation increased the investment of funds, and the 14 day Omo interest rate decreased. This week, in order to maintain reasonable and stable liquidity during the Spring Festival, the central bank invested 600 billion 14 day Omo net, and the bid winning interest rate decreased by 10bp. 2. Asset side: the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds decreased by 4bp compared with last week. 3. Liability side: the capital cost of banks’ active liabilities continued to decline.
Credit risk: in the fourth week of January, there was one case of credit debt default, and the industry was real estate development, with a total scale of 1 billion. The number of debt defaults showed a downward trend, but the number and amount of relevant credit debt defaults of real estate enterprises rebounded due to the tight financing environment. Considering the marginal relaxation of the financing policy for real estate enterprises since November, and the current policy emphasizes that there is still room for monetary and fiscal policies under the expectation of “stable growth”, we judge that the current credit market risk will be significantly repaired compared with the previous period. There is no large credit risk as a whole, but individual regions and enterprises will be exposed to individual risks.
Investment suggestion: at present, the safety margin of the sector is relatively high, and the asset quality constructs the safety margin of bank shares. 1. The core investment logic of bank stocks is macroeconomic. For details, see our relevant in-depth report “how do bank stocks perform when prices rise? – summary and comparison of multiple rounds of performance of bank stocks in China and the United States”. We expect that the asset quality of listed banks will be stable in the next few years, which will build the safety margin of bank shares. 2. Banks have two main lines of stock selection. One is our long-term proposal to continue to embrace the core assets of banks: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) . Their performance is highly sustainable and scarce. The boom of high-quality banks is certain and long-term. First, these scarce high-quality banks have “market-oriented genes” and “run to make money” in the industry of “lying down to make money”; Therefore, in the era of banking differentiation, their growth can be valued sustainably. Second, these banks occupy the sunrise track of the financial industry: wealth management and retail; Our in-depth report estimates that the growth rate of wealth management profits in the next decade will be 21% (see detailed calculation of income, profit and market value of “wealth management industry”: the golden track with a market value of 10 trillion). The other is to choose banks with undervalued value, safe asset quality and expected successful transformation, and be optimistic about Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) .
Risk warning event: the economic downturn exceeded expectations. The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
