Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: disclosure of performance forecast and pay attention to the market of annual report
As of January 31, a total of 86 listed companies in the automotive sector have issued annual performance forecasts, and the annual report market is about to open. It is suggested to pay attention to it.
Positive: 38 companies rose in the same direction and 12 companies turned losses into profits. Among the 38 companies rising in the same direction, 35 recorded a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent of more than 50% and 17 more than 100%.
Taking the initiative to stand on the "electric intelligent" track and optimizing the product structure are the main reasons for promoting performance growth. Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) and so on, relying on the supply of core components to the world's top electric vehicle enterprises, recorded a significant increase in performance; Zhongding group, Ling Yun Industrial Corporation Limited(600480) , Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) and others have achieved performance improvement by optimizing the product structure and giving full play to their advantages in the field of electric related products such as lightweight chassis, automobile pipeline system, thermoforming products and lightweight products; Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) and Foryou Corporation(002906) stand on the quasi intelligent track and enjoy the dividend of accelerating the penetration of intelligent cockpit and automatic driving assistance system.
The recovery of industries at home and abroad has led to the reversal of the performance of some companies. Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) relying on overseas business recovery and business optimization and integration, it recorded a performance reversal.
Negative: 14 companies fell in the same direction and 22 companies lost money. Among the 14 companies that fell in the same direction, 12 recorded a year-on-year decrease in the lower limit of net profit attributable to the parent company of more than 50%, and 6 recorded a year-on-year decrease of more than 70%.
Poor product sales are the main reason for the loss. In addition, the downturn of the industry and the provision of impairment expenses such as goodwill and assets are also one of the reasons for the performance loss.
The performance of parts companies is affected by the shrinking industry, repeated outbreaks at home and abroad and rising raw material prices. We suggest that we first pay attention to the positive performance forecast, that is, listed companies that have achieved substantial performance growth or turned losses into profits. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the time point when the performance of the company changes marginally with objective factors due to the poor prosperity of the track, the drag of overseas performance, the rise of raw material prices and other objective reasons.
Market review:
As of the closing on January 28, the auto sector was - 6.1%, and the CSI 300 index was - 4.5%. The increase of the auto sector lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 1.6 percentage points. From the sector ranking, the auto industry ranked 24th among the 28 sectors of Shenwan last week, with poor performance in the week. Since the beginning of the year, the automobile sector has been - 11.6%, ranking 22nd among the 28 sectors of Shenwan.
Weekly rise and fall of sub sectors: passenger cars (- 7.9%), commercial trucks (- 4.9%), commercial buses (- 5.4%), auto parts (- 5.2%), and auto services (- 3.3%).
Top five gainers and Losers: Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) , Wuxi Lihu Corporation Linmited(300694) , Kuang-Chi Technologies Co.Ltd(002625) , Sichuan Chuanhuan Technology Co.Ltd(300547) , Shenzhen Roadrover Technology Co.Ltd(002813) .
The top five in terms of rise and fall: Guizhou Guihang Automotive Components Co.Ltd(600523) , Zhejiang Jingu Company Limited(002488) , Youon Technology Co.Ltd(603776) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) .
Investment strategy and key recommendations this week:
The automobile sector should pay more attention to the companies whose profits are determined to grow and the companies whose valuation center is improved. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the problem of core shortage and the opportunities for vehicle and traditional parts enterprises in the improvement stage. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to the competitive Vehicle Enterprises: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Byd Company Limited(002594) . High quality enterprises in the parts sector with reasonable valuation at present: Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) ; Technical service enterprises that are not significantly affected by the fluctuation of production and sales and have strong growth certainty: China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) etc.
Recommended combinations this week: Byd Company Limited(002594) 20%, Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) 20%, Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) 20%, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) 20% and Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) 20%.
Risk tip: the car sales volume is lower than expected; The implementation of stimulus policies for the automobile industry was less than expected; The risk of intensified market competition; Risk of shortage of key raw materials such as chips and rising cost of raw materials; The epidemic control was less than expected.
