Key investment points:
Market review: from January 24 to January 28, 2022, SW food and beverage industry index fell by 6.37% as a whole, ranking fifth among all Shenwan industry indexes, losing about 1.86 percentage points to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in the same period, with a relatively weak performance. Among the sub sectors, only the beer sector and the bakery sector outperformed the CSI 300 index in the same period, while the other sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index in the same period.
Net inflow of land stock connect: from January 24 to January 28, 2022, land stock connect had a total net outflow of RMB 26.071 billion. Among them, the net outflow of food and beverage sector was 3.214 billion yuan, ranking the fourth in Shenwan industry.
Industry Week view: Mao Wu issued an announcement on production expansion to pay attention to the cross year market of the industry. Baijiu sector: Baijiu sector is relatively weak before the festival, and the valuation has been callback, but the industry has not reported any material bad news, and the fundamentals are stable. In January 26th, the State Council issued the "opinions on supporting Guizhou's new development in the new era of western development". It proposed to play the advantage of Chishui and its main producing areas and build an important Baijiu Baijiu production base. On the same day, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) announced that it planned to invest 4.11 billion yuan to implement the phase I construction project of Maotai flavored wine Xishui tongminba in the 14th five year plan. After the completion of the project, the company is expected to form a series of liquor production capacity of about 12000 tons, koji production capacity of about 29400 tons and liquor storage capacity of about 36000 tons. On January 29, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) issued an announcement on production expansion. The company said that according to the strategic development plan of the 14th five year plan, the company will increase the production capacity of raw wine and expand and transform the koji making workshop. The total investment of the project is estimated to be 2.75 billion yuan. In addition, following Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) successively released performance forecasts for 2021, and the performance met expectations. Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu market is relatively dull this year, due to the gradual regression of rational consumption and consumption of liquor and other factors. In terms of the target, we recommend that we must focus on the high-end Baijiu Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (000568). In the secondary high-end liquor, you can pay attention to Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809), Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (000799), etc; Regional liquor can focus on companies with greater recovery flexibility, such as Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (000596), Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (603589), Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369). Popular products: before the festival, some popular products companies released the performance forecast of 2021. Among them, Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) performed well in the fourth quarter. The company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 1.704 billion yuan in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of 29.68%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 386 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.87%. Meiweixian subsidiary is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 1.34 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 209 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%. The positive growth of the performance of delicious food in the fourth quarter is mainly catalyzed by factors such as the peak consumption season, the weakening of community group purchase, price increase and so on. The market will continue to pay attention to the marginal improvement brought by the price increase of products, and grasp the high-quality sector in the industry. In terms of subject matter, we can focus on Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) (603288), Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) (600872), Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) (603027), Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (600600), Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (600132), Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) (600887), Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (002557), Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) (603345), etc.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation, product price increase less than expected, channel development less than expected, intensified industry competition, food safety risk and macroeconomic downside risk.
