The medical biological index was adjusted greatly in January, and negative events were the main factor
Pharmaceutical Biology (Shenwan) fell 14.94% this month, weaker than the market. Each sub industry experienced different degrees of correction. The medical service sub industry fell by 19.83%, with relatively poor performance. The pharmaceutical business and traditional Chinese medicine sub industry fell slightly, down 8.27% and 10.23% respectively.
Summary of industry views in January:
In January, the overall performance of medicine was poor. Events such as private medical rectification and centralized purchase of growth hormone were taken as negative catalytic factors, resulting in continued pessimism in the pharmaceutical sector. The adjustment of dabaima is mainly due to capital factors. The position change in the new year puts a certain adjustment pressure on the sector. At the same time, the continuous pessimism leads to the decline of the average valuation anchor of the industry. Traditional Chinese medicine and covid-19 themes that performed well in December fell rapidly in January. Most of the companies with good growth are closely related to covid-19 pharmaceutical industry chain. Except for some sub industry leaders with strong fundamentals, the theme track shows a state of rapid rise and fall of theme related targets, with great risk of stock price fluctuation.
Prediction of pharmaceutical market in February:
During the Spring Festival, there are many reports on the positive progress of covid-19 related vaccines and drugs. For example, Pfizer’s covid-19 vaccine opened the rolling application for emergency use authorization for children aged from June to 4 years. Its covid-19 drug paxlovid obtained the positive opinions of CHMP and recommended to be listed conditionally. The mRNA covid-19 vaccine spikevax (mrna-1273) of Moderna was officially approved, etc.
Countries have introduced various liberalization policies for covid-19 epidemic in varying degrees. For example, the United States no longer counts the number of confirmed covid-19 cases and deaths, and the British government also announced the cancellation of public restrictions related to covid-19 virus. It is expected that the demand for protective products, self-test products and oral drugs related to the prevention and control of the epidemic will continue to be strong, Sustainable focus on companies with epidemic prevention product export business. The epidemic situation in China continues to spread during the Spring Festival. It is expected that the growth of imported covid-19 cases will accelerate in the future, the epidemic prevention pressure in China will increase, the demand for the R & D and marketing of covid-19 drugs will become more and more urgent, and the relevant industrial chains are expected to continue to be concerned.
Monthly gold stock review in January
Monthly gold stocks rose in January, Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) (- 15%) and Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) (- 5%), with relative gains compared with the medical index. Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) fell a lot, mainly due to the position adjustment at the beginning of the year, and the fundamentals are still good; The correlation between Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) and centralized purchase is weak, so it goes out of the relative income.
Monthly gold shares in February
Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) (300760): a multi category, multi market and multi-level comprehensive device leader, benefiting from the construction of public health system, will continue to maintain a relatively stable growth and adjust to the bottom range of multi-year valuation. The valuation from 2022 to 2023 is 37x and 30x, maintaining the recommendation.
79} the pharmaceutical industry is characterized by high competition barrier and high concentration of drugs; The demand for narcotic drugs is driven by the growth of operation volume, comfortable diagnosis and treatment and other factors; The refocusing process continued, the debt ratio improved and the financial expenses decreased. The valuation of 2022-2023 is 19x, 16x, and the recommendation is maintained.
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risk, overseas expansion risk, failure risk of new product research and development, risk of less than expected promotion of narcotic drugs, risk of weakening barriers to narcotic drugs
