Key investment points:
Market review. As of January 28, 2022, Shenwan basic chemical industry fell by 3.26% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.25 percentage points and ranking seventh among Shenwan 31 industries; Shenwan basic chemical industry has fallen 10.59% so far this month, 2.97 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, ranking 21st among Shenwan 31 industries.
As for the seven sub sectors of Shenwan basic chemical industry, according to the performance of the recent week, the increase order is agrochemical products (- 1.31%), non-metallic materials (- 1.82%), chemicals (- 3.21%), plastics (- 3.65%), rubber (- 3.90%), chemical raw materials (- 4.26%) and chemical fibers (- 5.85%).
Among the stocks with the highest gains this week, Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002037) , Guizhou Redstar Developing Co.Ltd(600367) and Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology Co.Ltd(688639) performed best, with gains of 32.94%, 27.29% and 17.21% respectively. Among the stocks with the highest decline this week, Huabao Flavours & Fragrances Co.Ltd(300741) , Shenzhen Tongyi Industry Co.Ltd(300538) and Baotou Tomorrow Technology Co.Ltd(600091) performed the worst, with declines of – 33.03%, – 23.87% and – 22.5% respectively.
Rise and fall of chemical products: according to the data of Zhuo Chuang information, among the 106 chemical products monitored by Zhuo Chuang information, butadiene (+ 9.09%), styrene (+ 7.93%), aniline (+ 7.69%), o-benzene (+ 6.00%), phthalic anhydride (+ 5.57%) and propylene (- 5.39%) and calcium carbide (- 5.23%) were the top five products with price increases in the period 20220121-0128 Acrylonitrile (- 3.04%), n-butanol (- 2.75%), caustic soda (- 2.27%).
Weekly view of basic chemical industry: affected by geopolitical factors and the expectation of insufficient production potential, WTI crude oil futures prices continued to rise this week, breaking through the $90 mark and reaching a new high in seven years. At the end of 2021, the central economic work conference made it clear that the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and create conditions to realize the transformation from “dual control” of energy consumption to “dual control” of carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, so as to benefit the industry leading enterprises Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) and Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) with high proportion of raw material energy consumption, strong cost control ability and perfect environmental protection system. In addition, the downstream pesticide, modified plastics and sweetener industries can continue to pay attention. Key target concerns:
Longtou white horse: Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) (600426), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) (002493)
Pesticide: Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) (600486)
Modified plastics: Kingfa Sci.& Tech.Co.Ltd(600143) (600143)
Sweetener: Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (002597)
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Product price and price difference fall; Intensified industry competition, etc.
