Market Review
In the five trading days last week (0124-0128), the building materials (CITIC) index fell 5.1%, the CSI 300 fell 4.5%, and all the building materials sub sectors fell. The correction of the stable growth related sectors with good gains before was obvious. We judged that it was mainly related to the weak overall market performance and the concentrated disclosure of significant impairment by real estate chain companies, which affected the financial results of 21 years. Among individual stocks, Fujian Kuncai Material Technology Co.Ltd(603826) , Yunnan Bowin Technology Industry Co.Ltd(600883) , Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Xinyi Glass, Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) led the gains.
Real estate sales were still at the bottom in January, and the impairment risk of the industrial chain ushered in a centralized clearing
We made statistics on the transaction area of second-hand housing in 13 representative cities with complete second-hand housing transaction data. The transaction area of second-hand housing in the above 13 cities decreased by 45.8% year-on-year in January. Since September last year, the transaction area of second-hand housing in a single month has decreased by more than 40% year-on-year. The transaction area of 22m1 commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 29.9% year-on-year, expanding compared with Q4 last year. We believe that there is no sign of improvement in the year-on-year growth rate of sales area of new houses and second-hand houses in January, mainly due to: 1) the transmission from policy improvement to sales improvement has not been reflected; 2) Last year, Q1 sales boom was still good, with a high base. We judge that the policy side is still expected to release the signal of favorable real estate sales improvement, and the sales are expected to improve gradually. By the end of January, a total of 53 listed companies of building materials had issued 21fy performance forecast. The year-on-year growth rate was calculated according to the median value of the forecast or performance express. A total of 26 21fy performance had achieved positive year-on-year growth, of which the faster growth was mainly concentrated in the upper reaches of cyclical products such as glass and glass fiber. Among the consumer building materials companies that have published performance forecasts or express reports, except Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) whose performance has increased by 23.5%, other companies have not achieved positive performance growth, including Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) and Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) 21fy losses. We believe that the profitability of consumer building materials was under great pressure from the price rise of upstream raw materials last year. At the same time, the capital risk exposure of the real estate industry chain also made some companies significantly withdraw the impairment of risk customers, which are the two main factors that put pressure on the performance of the final consumer building materials sector in the past 21 years. We judge that the cost pressure on the consumer building materials sector is expected to be relieved in 2022. With the improvement of policies, the downstream prosperity and the tension of capital chain are expected to be improved, and the quality of statements is expected to be compacted after some companies make significant provision for impairment. We continue to be optimistic about the medium and long-term investment value of consumer building materials.
Actively grasp the restless market of the Spring Festival and recommend the consumption of building materials / pipelines / cement, etc
1) influenced by the prosperity of real estate, capital chain and cost pressure last year, the above factors are expected to gradually improve. In the medium and long term, the leading companies have started channel reform, and the scale effect is expected to continuously improve the industry concentration, both long and short; 2) The downstream of the plastic pipeline sector has both infrastructure and real estate. The infrastructure end is expected to benefit from the warming of municipal pipe network investment, and the logic of the real estate end is similar to that of consumer building materials; 3) Cement is expected to benefit from the improvement of follow-up infrastructure and real estate demand. In the medium and long term, the supply pattern is expected to be continuously optimized; 4) At present, the market value of the leading glass industry is at a low level. Next year, the overall supply and demand of the industry may still be in a tight balance. The downward space of the unit profit of float glass is limited. Photovoltaic glass is expected to benefit from the recovery of the landscape of the industrial chain, and electronic glass is expected to benefit from the large volume of new products such as domestic substitutes and folding screens; 5) The demand side of glass fiber is driven by the downstream of wind power and overseas, and the increment on the supply side is limited.
Investment advice
Recommendations for consumer building materials Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; China Liansu, Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) , ad Co., Ltd. are recommended for the pipeline; Recommended cement Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) ; Glass recommended Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Xinyi Glass, etc; Recommended China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) for glass fiber;
Risk tip: the demand for infrastructure and real estate fell more than expected, affecting the rising trend of cement and glass prices; The promotion of old reform and new urbanization was less than expected.
