Zhou viewpoint: continue to be optimistic about independent rise + electric intelligence + motorcycle
Great changes have taken place in automotive intelligent and electric vehicles, reshaping the industrial order and looking forward to the golden decade of the automotive industry. The new energy delivery volume of new forces and traditional car enterprises increased year-on-year, and the product power continued to pry demand. Tesla released the 2021q4 financial report, and the profit reached a new high. The gross profit margin of Q4 automobile business reached 30.6%, the highest among mass production automobile enterprises. Driven by product power, we believe that the profitability of electric vehicles is significantly higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, and we continue to be optimistic about electric intelligence. Core portfolio of this month [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) ].
Passenger cars: new power and traditional car enterprises announced the delivery volume of new energy in January 2022. The delivery volume of Weilai / Xiaopeng / ideal / Byd Company Limited(002594) new energy / ai’an / jikrypton in January was 9652, 12922, 12268, 92926, 16031 and 3530 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 33.6%, + 114.8%, + 128.1%, + 367.6% and + 117.9% respectively. Tesla released the full year results of 2021q4 and 2021. The total revenue of Q4 in a single quarter was US $17.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 64.9%; GAAP net profit was US $2.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 759.6%. The annual total revenue was USD 53.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 70.7%, and the net profit of GAAP was USD 5.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 665.5%. We judge that the growth rate of passenger car sales this year is expected to exceed 5%, new energy is the core increment, and the terminal demand is still considerable; Medium and short-term passenger car manufacturers ushered in additional storage under the improvement of core shortage margin. Firmly optimistic about the independent rise, realize the brand upward and increase the market share with the help of reform, recommend [Geely Automobile h, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ], and benefit the target [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H].
Parts: Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order, rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis, and firmly look at many parts. Intellectualization will be the core theme of this year. Intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit will accelerate together, and we are optimistic about the accelerated penetration of acoustics + chassis by wire + domain controller; Electrification accelerates the development of lightweight, Tesla leads the integrated die casting, and improves the industry concentration while increasing the industry expansion. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened. The accelerated growth of sales volume drives the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper. It is recommended to recommend [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ] with greater flexibility, and the beneficiary objects [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) ].
2. Product dimension:
The transformation of intelligent electric will reshape the brand power and product power. All vehicle enterprises are increasing the intelligent electric configuration, hoping to achieve the brand upward: preferred acoustics – [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], wire controlled chassis – [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], domain controller – [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ], ceiling glass – [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], integrated die casting – [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], intelligent seats – [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], interior decoration – [ Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) ] Platform type -[ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ].
1) electrification increment: three power [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ], beneficiary targets [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (covered by the new power group), Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) ]; New energy thermal management [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], beneficiary targets [ Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]; Lightweight [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], beneficial targets [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) ].
2) intelligent increment: automatic driving [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) ], benefit target [Nextel]; Intelligent cockpit [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively).
The sales volume of motorcycles in China was + 65000 in December, up from + 1.07 million to + 3.3 million in December, representing a year-on-year increase of + 1.07 million. Medium and large displacement motorcycles represent the direction of consumption upgrading, with huge market potential. The share will be concentrated in independent and joint venture brands with outstanding brand strength, leading powertrain technology and perfect channel layout. Recommended [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) ].
This week’s market: overall weaker than the market, led by passenger cars
This week, the A-share auto sector fell 6.08%, ranking 24th in shenwanzi industry, weaker than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (down 4.18%). Among the segments, passenger cars, buses, automobile services, other transportation equipment, auto parts and trucks fell across the board, down 7.60%, 5.45%, 3.72%, 7.41%, 4.83% and 5.94% respectively.
Data of this week: Wholesale improved year-on-year and retail increased significantly
In the third week of January, the average daily wholesale was 6.2 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 22% and a month on month increase of – 6%; In the third week of January, the average daily retail sales volume was 67000, with a year-on-year increase of + 28% and a month on month increase of + 13%.
Risk tips
Chip supply shortage; Fluctuations in raw material costs; Sales recovery was less than expected.
