Ping An View:
Industry view: the pharmaceutical sector is callback before the festival. It is suggested to pay attention to the subject matter with strong uncertainty of annual report performance. The week before the Spring Festival holiday, the pharmaceutical sector fell 6.83%, the CSI 300 index fell 4.51% in the same period, and the pharmaceutical industry ranked 26th among 28 industries. The pharmaceutical sector continued to callback before the festival. As of January 28, 2022, the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector was 28.53 times (TTM, excluding negative values in the overall method). The valuation premium rate for all A-Shares (excluding finance) was 34.29%, which was lower than 56.83% of the historical average. In 2022, the overall adjustment of the pharmaceutical sector is more, and the time point of layout may have arrived. In 2021, some sub sectors of the pharmaceutical industry, such as CXO, traditional Chinese medicine and innovative drugs, and equipment enterprises, have strong certainty of performance growth and high prosperity of the industry. At this time point, we suggest paying attention to these sectors and targets with relatively stable performance growth.
Investment strategy: Main Line 1: innovation Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain, including innovative drugs (machinery) and CXO. CDE’s new deal accelerates the evolution of China’s “new ecology” of innovation, and the industry is facing “re differentiation”. Pay attention to companies with clinical Oriented Innovation Ability and license out ability. It is suggested to pay attention to: Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Baiji Shenzhou, Xinda biology, Corning Jerry, Shenzhen Chipscreen Biosciences Co.Ltd(688321) . In terms of CXO, we prefer cdmo and macromolecular CXO tracks by maintaining a high outlook. We suggest to pay attention to: Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) . Main line 2: products go to sea. The overseas market is a huge incremental market, there is a high threshold for the export of preparations, and the export of medical devices to the sea has also become a new growth driving force of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to: Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , etc. Main line 3: consumer healthcare. With the growth of per capita disposable income, the demand for consumer medical care continues to increase. At the same time, consumer medical products are self funded products, with independent pricing power and immunization fee control policy. It is suggested to pay attention to: Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) , etc. Main line 4: the traditional Chinese medicine sector has been in the adjustment stage for a long time, and the overall valuation is low. Enterprises with steady performance growth in the sector have high cost performance and prominent layout advantages. Moreover, the export of traditional Chinese medicine products is small and the internal circulation attribute is obvious, so it will not be disturbed by foreign policies towards China. Some traditional Chinese medicine products are more inclined to health care products with stronger consumption attributes, which can be benchmarked with some food enterprises. On this premise, we believe that the subject matter with sufficient adjustment and low valuation deserves special attention. Among them, enterprises with a larger proportion of OTC drugs in the fee control policy of immune medical insurance, better room for price increase of products and a smaller proportion of traditional Chinese medicine injections have greater flexibility. It is suggested to pay attention to: Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) , Kpc Pharmaceuticals Inc(600422) , etc. In addition to the above three main lines, there are also some other tracks with high prosperity and high barriers: including characteristic API and nuclear medicine. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Jiangxi Fushine Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300497) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Yantai Dongcheng Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002675) , and Yuanda medicine.
Industry highlights 1) eplonter Sen, a new drug of transthyroxine protein amyloidosis (attr) of Ionis Pharma, has obtained the qualification of orphan drug of FDA; 2) Lundbeck migraine new drug CGRP targeted antibody vyepti approved by EU; 3) Vabysmo, an ophthalmic bispecific antibody of Roche for DME and namd, was approved in the United States; 4) Beauty is precious β- Limbrose, a new drug for thalassemia, is a red blood cell maturation agent ® Approved in China.
Market review: the week before the Spring Festival holiday, the A-share pharmaceutical sector fell 6.83%, the CSI 300 index fell 4.51% in the same period, and the pharmaceutical industry ranked 26th among 28 industries. The week before the Spring Festival holiday, the H-share pharmaceutical sector fell 14.95%, the Hang Seng Composite Index fell 6.37% in the same period, and the pharmaceutical industry ranked 11th among 11 industries.
Risk tips: 1) policy risk: policies such as medical insurance fee control and drug price reduction have a great negative impact on the industry; 2) R & D risk: pharmaceutical R & D investment is large and difficult, and there is the possibility of R & D failure or slow progress; 3) Corporate risk: the company’s operation does not meet expectations.
