Investment summary:
Talk every Monday:
The OPEC + monthly oil production policy meeting led by Saudi Arabia and Russia insisted on the original plan to increase production by 400000 barrels per day in March, continuing its statement and decision in July 2021.
In recent months, OPEC production reduction countries failed to achieve the production increase target:
In December, the output of the ten OPEC countries increased by less than 200000 barrels / day, and the actual output was lower than the agreed volume. In addition, affected by the closure of the largest oil field in the west, Libya reduced its crude oil production by 140000 barrels / day, dragging down the increase of OPEC’s overall crude oil supply.
At present, the ten OPEC countries have the ability to quickly release production, but after 2023, the idle capacity of crude oil will decline, and the supply elasticity will gradually decrease.
The upstream investment is insufficient, and the growth of US crude oil supply is still fragile:
The decline in capital expenditure restricts the further development of oil and gas. It is expected that capital expenditure will reach about $135 billion in 2023, less than half of the level in 2014.
The current shale oil production in the United States is still 1.5 million barrels / day away from the peak period before the epidemic. Although the shale oil production is recovering, it is difficult to return to the previous high.
As of the week of January 28, the US Cushing crude oil inventory unexpectedly fell by 1 million barrels to 415 million barrels.
Russian crude oil production is very close to production capacity:
According to the data of Rosneft, the total output of Russian crude oil in 2021 is about 10.9 million barrels / day. From August to December 2021, Russia’s oil production increased by about 460000 barrels per day, including 11.37 million barrels per day in December, an increase of about 360000 barrels per day over the previous month, which is very close to the crude oil production capacity, and there is basically no room for increasing production.
It is expected that the mismatch between supply and demand in the oil market will be strengthened in 2022. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the leading private refining enterprises:
As the main raw material of refineries, crude oil has a certain cost driving effect on downstream products. We expect that the rise in upstream oil and gas prices will help to promote the expansion of refining gross profit and chemical price difference, and the stability of large refining and chemical profit is expected to be enhanced.
There is still room for the future production capacity of refining and chemical leaders, with strong certainty of performance growth. The market of large refining and chemical sector is expected to continue. It is recommended to pay attention to Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) .
Market review:
Sector performance: this week, CITIC’s primary petroleum and petrochemical index rose or fell – 3.10%, ranking sixth among 30 industry indexes. This week, the Shanghai index rose or fell – 4.57%, and the CITIC primary petroleum and petrochemical index was + 1.47% relative to the Shanghai index. The rise and fall of petroleum and petrochemical sub sectors: engineering services (- 1.21%), oilfield services (- 2.16%), oil refining (- 2.37%), other petrochemical (- 3.00%), oil exploitation (- 3.90%), oil sales and storage (- 8.01%).
Rise and fall of individual stocks: the petroleum and petrochemical sector led the rise this week, including Maohua Petrochemical (+ 6.00%), Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp.Ltd(600378) (+ 5.71%), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) (+ 2.08%), Suzhou Douson Drilling&Production Equipment Co.Ltd(603800) (+ 1.14%) and so on; Stocks leading the decline include Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) (- 11.01%), Shandong Polymer Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002476) (- 8.54%), Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) (- 8.27%), Xinjiang International Industry Co.Ltd(000159) (- 6.58%), Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) (- 6.56%), etc.
Risk warning: policy risk; Geopolitics exacerbates risks; The risk of sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and the risk of continued deterioration of the global covid-19 epidemic;
