Banking stocks: industry index fell
From the Shenwan industry index, the banking index rose by – 3.62%, 2.33% and 2.33% this week, this month and year to date respectively, ranking 8th, 1st and 1st among the 31 Shenwan industries.
Weekly, the share prices of listed banks generally fell. Among them, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) and Xiamen Bank Co.Ltd(601187) share prices fell significantly, with – 8.76%, – 6.44% and – 6.13% respectively. On a monthly basis, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) share prices rose by 16.83%, 12.86%, 11.65% and 10.20% respectively. Since the beginning of the year, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) have increased by more than 10%.
Central bank operation and money market interest rate: net money supply, overnight interest rate decreased
The total amount of money put in this week was 205 billion yuan, the total amount returned was 5 billion yuan, and the net money put in was 200 billion yuan, a decrease of 200 billion yuan compared with last week. Since the beginning of this month, the net monetary investment has reached 200 billion yuan.
On January 28, dr001 was 1.21%, down 93bps compared with last Friday. Dr007 was 2.54%, an increase of 19bps compared with last Friday.
The overnight lending rate was 1.25%, down 88bps from last Friday. The 7-day lending rate was 2.54%, up 6bps from last Friday.
Interbank deposit certificate issuing interest rate
This week, the issuing interest rate of 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit decreased, and the issuing interest rate of 1m interbank certificates of deposit increased. On January 28, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit were 2.39%, 2.42% and 2.72% respectively, with changes of + 7bps, – 15bps and – 11bps respectively compared with last Friday.
China US Treasury bond yield: the term interest spread between China and the United States has expanded
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds decreased, and the term interest spread expanded. On January 28, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds were 1.95% and 2.70% respectively, with changes of – 5bps and – 1bp respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.75%, up 4bps from last Friday.
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds increased, and the term spread widened. On February 4, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds were 0.89% and 1.93% respectively, with changes of + 14bps and + 15bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 1.04%, up 1bp from last Friday.
Us liquidity index: increased expectation of interest rate hike
(1) on February 3, the US guaranteed overnight financing interest rate was 0.05%, the same as last Friday; (2) This week, the expected change direction of the US target interest rate is still rising, and the expectation of interest rate increase is enhanced; (3) On February 3, the adjusted spread of US corporate bond options was 3.51%, down 10bps compared with last Friday; (4) On February 4, the yield of US inflation index treasury bonds (TIPS) was – 0.48%, an increase of 18bps compared with last Friday.
Investment advice
According to the central bank’s credit statistics, under the background of the slowdown in the growth of real estate and housing loans, green loans, inclusive loans and non real estate loans have achieved rapid growth. Superimposed on the signal of the force of previous policies, there are expected to be more vigorous measures to stabilize growth. From the perspective of valuation, the policy is conducive to improving bank valuation. From the perspective of operation, although various conclusions are controversial from a top-down perspective, small and micro loans and personal loans are still the optimal solution of banks. We still recommend Ningbo, China Merchants, postal savings and Ping An Bank.
Risk tips
The macro economy went down faster than expected.
