Investment summary:
Talk every Monday
The State Council issued the opinions on supporting Guizhou to break a new path in the western development in the new era, supporting the construction of Chishui River Maotai flavor wine producing area. The expenditure of the opinion is to play the advantage of the origin and main producing areas of Maotai flavor liquor in the Chishui River Basin, and build an important Baijiu Baijiu production base in China. We should steadily push forward the reform of Baijiu enterprise marketing system. Enhance the influence of China (Guizhou) International Wine Expo and other exhibition activities.
The base liquor production capacity of Maotai liquor and series liquor is insufficient. The design capacity of Maotai liquor of the company is 42600 tons, and the actual output is 56500 tons; The designed capacity of the series is 25300 tons, and the actual output is 28200 tons.
The expansion of Maotai liquor is limited, so we actively expand the production of series liquor. Maotai liquor is produced in the core production area of Maotai town with an area of 15 square kilometers. The production cycle is 5 years. The production areas of series liquor are more widely distributed and the production cycle is short. Therefore, the expansion of production capacity mainly depends on Series liquor.
Release the new product "Maotai 1935" to improve the price belt of series liquor and become the leader of series liquor. It is expected to contribute nearly 2.5 billion yuan in revenue in 2022.
Feitian is strong, but the series is weak. In 2021, the company's revenue was 109 billion, of which series wine accounted for only 11.6%, and its contribution to revenue was low.
Maotai series urgently needs a leading product. The terminal price of series liquor is basically lower than 900 yuan, and products with a price of more than 1000 yuan are required.
Maotai 1935 is expected to contribute nearly 2.5 billion revenue in 2022, and may continue to expand production in the future. According to the company's production plan, product price and market reaction, Maotai 1935 is expected to contribute 2.07-2.59 billion yuan of revenue in 2022. The proportion of revenue target of series liquor is still low, and the base liquor production capacity may be further expanded in the future.
Market Review
In the recent week, the food and beverage index rose by - 6.37%, ranking 25th among the 28 industries of Shenwan, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.86pct, and other foods (+ 5.01%) in the sub industries performed better.
The top five stocks rose: Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , St tongportugal, St Weiwei, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Beijing Sanyuan Foods Co.Ltd(600429)
The top five stocks with declines: Huabao Flavours & Fragrances Co.Ltd(300741) , Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.Ltd(000995) , Hai Nan Yedao (Group) Co.Ltd(600238) , Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882)
Investment strategy
Key recommendations: the freezing baking leader Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) with high performance growth, leading technical level, continuous optimization of channel structure and improved penetration, as well as Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) with strong market competitiveness, launching new products, seizing the market of 1000 yuan and opening a new growth pole; It is suggested to pay attention to: the industry is growing rapidly, the market share is high, and there is a leading pre blending industry with large and poor expectation in the market Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) ; Moderately pay attention to the outstanding stocks in the prefabricated vegetable industry with high prosperity.
